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Tag Archives: USD

FX Daily, January 11: Dollar Comes Back Bid

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 11 (see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The pound has seen a sharp fall following the interview that Theresa May gave with Sky news on Sunday although there has been a small rebound this afternoon. GBP CHF exchange rates are hovering around 1.2350 for this pair. The pound fell sharply in morning trade but has since recovered as there still remains a...

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Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid-October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit of a miscue, and the yield rose sharply to hit almost 2.64% the day after the FOMC hiked rates for the second time in the cycle on December 14. The yield backed off to hit 2.33% at the end of last week. The difference between...

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FX Daily, January 10: Positioning more than Fundamentals Give Traders Pause

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling is on the ropes following Brexit comments made by UK Prime Minister Theresa May over the weekend. It’s been a tough day’s trading for any clients holding the Pound with losses against all of the  major currencies. GBP/CHF rates have dropped by a cent and a half with the pair now trading in the mid 1.23’s,...

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The Better Way: Backing into Smoot-Hawley and Repeating the Flaws of PPP

Summary: Part of the US Republican tax reforms call for a border adjustment. It will tax imports fully and not exports. This will likely be challenged at the WTO. Many economists say the dollar will automatically appreciate by 20%. WE are bullish the dollar but skeptical of the logic here. While hearings on US President-elect Trump’s nominees will begin this week, the Republicans are preparing dramatic changes...

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FX Daily, January 09: Sterling Pounded by May’s Hard Brexit

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the...

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields

Summary: Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues. United States The major US equity indices reached record highs before the weekend even...

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US Jobs Details Better than the Headline

United States The dollar and US yields are recouping more of yesterday’s decline. A break of $1.0480-$1.05 would suggest the euro’s upside bounce is exhausted. A dollar move above JPY116.80-JPY117.25 would also hint that the greenback was going to make an other run toward JPY118.30-JPY118.60. Sterling support is seen in the $1.2285-$1.2310 area. The Canadian dollar is struggle to sustain it upward momentum. A US dollar...

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FX Daily, January 06: Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses

  Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBP/CHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the...

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A Few Thoughts Ahead of the US Jobs Report

Summary ADP and Non-Manufacturing ISM lend credence to our fear of a disappointing national jobs report. Economists estimate only a small part of the manufacturing jobs loss can be traced to trade policy. 19 states increased min wage at the start of the year, but the impact on the nation’s average weekly earnings will likely be too small to detect. We have suggested the risk of disappointment with the US...

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FX Daily, January 05: Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Swiss Franc has limited data releases to note for the upcoming weeks therefore I expect news from the Brexit story and UK economic data to influence exchange rates this month. At present we are awaiting the decision from the Supreme Court in regards to if UK Prime Minister Theresa May needs to seek Government...

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