Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP / CHF The cost of hedging against major currency fluctuations between the Swiss Franc and the Euro hit it’s highest level in 2 months yesterday, as fears over impending French elections have investors worried. The far-right political parties in France are seeing their highest levels of...
Read More »FX Daily, March 08: Dollar Bid as Rates Firm
Swiss Franc Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, February 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Consumer Price Index, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has deteriorated further in the last 24 hours as uncertainty over the Brexit and economic data for the UK weigh on the performance of the pound. I would suggest rates are going to continue to struggle for Swiss...
Read More »A Few Thoughts about the US Labor Market
Summary The 94 mln people POTUS claims are not working is true but terribly misleading. What happened to agriculture a century ago is happening to manufacturing. New industries are less labor intensive than smokestack industries. In a speech to the joint session of Congress that was widely recognized as “presidential,” US President Trump said twice that there are 94 mln Americans out of the labor market. It is...
Read More »FX Daily, March 07: Greenback Continues to Recover from the Late Pre-Weekend Slide
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound has continued to gradually slide lower against the Swiss Franc with rates for this pair falling to 1.2350. GBP CHF is particularly week on two counts: The safe haven status of the Swiss Franc and Brexit. Sterling continues to remain under a degree of pressure as the Brexit uncertainty continues to...
Read More »FX Daily, March 06: The Dollar Gives Back More Before Consolidating
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s pre-weekend pullback was extended in early European turnover but appeared to quickly run out of steam. The prospect of a constructive US employment report at the end of the week, especially given the steady decline in weekly initial jobless claims to new cyclical lows, underscores the...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Four Sets of Questions and Tentative Answers for the Week Ahead
The week ahead features the ECB meeting and the US February jobs report. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets, Europe reports industrial production, Japan reports January current account figures, and China reports its latest inflation and lending figures. We frame this week’s discussion of the drivers in terms of four sets of questions and offer some tentative answers. United States What is the significance of the...
Read More »The Resilience of Globalization and the US Dollar
Summary: Populism-nationalism is not really a wave sweeping across the world. Where it succeeded was where a center-right party in a two-party system embraced part of the populist agenda. Center-right parties in Europe are not embracing key agenda for populist-naitonalist, but appear to be tacking to the right on domestic issues. The conventional narrative is that in the aftermath of the Great Financial...
Read More »FX Daily, March 02: Dollar Remains Bid
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is bid against the major currencies as the combination the increased expectation of a Fed rate hike and the President’s commitment to fiscal stimulus buoys sentiment. The dollar-bloc, where speculators in the futures market, have grown a net long position, are leading the...
Read More »Great Graphic: Fed’s Real Broad Trade Weighted Dollar
To begin assessing the dollar’s impact on the US economy, nominal bilateral exchange rates may be misleading. From a policymakers’ point of view, the real broad trade weighted measure is more important. The Federal Reserve tracks it on a monthly basis. This measure of the dollar snapped a four-month advancing streak ended in January with a marginal loss (0.05%). Last month, the real broad trade weighted measure fell...
Read More »FX Daily, March 01: Greenback Bounces, More Fed than Trump
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has now slipped below 1.25, a trend I did say I expected to take shape this month. Whilst some commentators do foresee the pound finding some strength once Article 50 is triggered I believe there is a strong likelihood that we will actually be more likely to see the pound...
Read More »