Summary: FOMC is the highlight of the week. Early look at July inflation in Europe may see less pressure. Overall household consumption in Japan is rising, helped by robust labor market, but little new price pressures. The data this week is expected to confirm what many investors have come to assume. The US economy accelerated in Q2. The eurozone economy is enjoying steady growth, but the momentum appears to...
Read More »FX Daily, July 21: Dollar Licks Wounds as News Stream Doesn’t Improve
Swiss Franc The euro has depreciated by 0.13 to 1.1043 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is very much unloved. The apparent stabilization of the political situation in Europe and sustained pace of above trend growth contrasts with the US where the political situation leaves much to be desired and the economy is...
Read More »FX Daily, July 20: ECB Game Day
Swiss Franc The euro has appreciated by 0.47% to 1.1051 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against the major currencies today. It does not appear to be simply position adjustments ahead of the ECB meeting. Consider that Australia reported strong employment data, and after making new highs,...
Read More »FX Daily, July 19: Dollar Stabilizes on Hump Day, Awaits Thursday’s BOJ and ECB Meetings
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.38% to 1.0987 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates After being shellacked to start the week, the US dollar is being given a small reprieve today as investors await tomorrow’s BOJ and ECB meetings. The US may also report a bounce back in housing starts (residential investment) after a...
Read More »FX Daily, July 18: Dollar Dumped on Doubts on US Economic Agenda
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.20% to 1.1007 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates News of the defection of two more Republican Senators doomed the Senate attempt to replace and repeal America’s national health care. The failure to replace the system dubbed Obamacare, despite the Republican majority in both legislative...
Read More »FX Daily, July 17: Markets Mark Time, Dollar Consolidates Losses
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.1028 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, July 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates After falling to new lows for the year against several major currencies in response to disappointing retail sales and uninspiring CPI before the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a more stable note. It is firmer against nearly all the major...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Focus Shifts from Fed to ECB
Summary: Market has downgraded chances of a September hike from low to lower, but the chances of a December hike are higher than the day after the June hike. ECB meeting is the most important event of the week. A small change in the risk assessment is likely. The US and Europe have been more disruptive to the global capital markets this year than China. The focus shifts in the week ahead from Yellen’s...
Read More »Great Graphic: Dollar Index Bottoming?
Summary Downside momentum is fading and technicals are showing a bullish divergence. The Dollar Index has not met the minimum corrective retracement target, meaning that it is premature to talk about bear market. We identify two pre-conditions to enter trade. The Dollar Index set the year’s high on January 3 a little above 103.20. Today it made a marginal new lows for the year at 95.464. The previous low, set at...
Read More »FX Daily, June 16: Dollar Slips In Consolidation, but Extends Recovery Against the Yen
Swiss Franc The euro has appreciated by 0.23% to 1.0896 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates As the market heads into the weekend, the US dollar is trading softer as it consolidates. It is within yesterday’s ranges against the major currencies but the Japanese yen. The dollar has made a dramatic recovery against the yen. It traded near JPY108.80 in the middle of...
Read More »FX Daily, June 15: Dollar Trades Higher in Wake of the FOMC
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.21% to 1.0869 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar gains scored yesterday in response to what appeared to be a more hawkish FOMC than expected have been extended today. The euro and the Swiss franc have recorded new lows for the month. In some ways, a do-nothing MPC meeting may be overshadowed by the...
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