Tag Archives: USD

The week ahead features the ECB meeting and the US February jobs report. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets, Europe reports industrial production, Japan reports January current account figures, and China reports its latest inflation and lending figures. We frame this week’s discussion of the drivers in terms of four sets of questions and offer some tentative answers. United States What is the significance of the...

Summary: Populism-nationalism is not really a wave sweeping across the world. Where it succeeded was where a center-right party in a two-party system embraced part of the populist agenda. Center-right parties in Europe are not embracing key agenda for populist-naitonalist, but appear to be tacking to the right on domestic issues. The conventional narrative is that in the aftermath of the Great Financial...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is bid against the major currencies as the combination the increased expectation of a Fed rate hike and the President’s commitment to fiscal stimulus buoys sentiment. The dollar-bloc, where speculators in the futures market, have grown a net long position, are leading the...

To begin assessing the dollar’s impact on the US economy, nominal bilateral exchange rates may be misleading. From a policymakers’ point of view, the real broad trade weighted measure is more important. The Federal Reserve tracks it on a monthly basis. This measure of the dollar snapped a four-month advancing  streak ended in January with a marginal loss (0.05%).  Last month, the real broad trade weighted measure fell...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has now slipped below 1.25, a trend I did say I expected to take shape this month. Whilst some commentators do foresee the pound finding some strength once Article 50 is triggered I believe there is a strong likelihood that we will actually be more likely to see the pound...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has now slipped below 1.25, a trend I did say I expected to take shape this month. Whilst some commentators do foresee the pound finding some strength once Article 50 is triggered I believe there is a strong likelihood that we will actually be more likely to see the pound...

Summary: Numerous events converge in the middle of March. We still lean toward a May hike rate than March. Wilders may garner a plurality of the vote in the Netherlands, but is unlikely to form a government for want of coalition partners. How will the Republican US Congress and President deal with the debt ceiling? T.S. Eliot tells us that April is the cruelest month. A great poet he was, but a trader he was...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF GBH CHF continues to see a volatile period with the general global uncertainty which has seen investors favour the safe haven currency. GBP CHF currently sits at 1.25 for this pair and there is resistance at these levels which is preventing the pound from driving higher. Brexit is now...

Summary: Pity imports, they are misunderstood. Imports create jobs directly and indirectly. Restricting US imports would likely also curb exports. The mercantilist inclination by the Trump Administration makes it seem as if exports are good and create jobs and imports are bad and cost jobs.   This is simply not true.  This assessment is not based on newfangled thinking about trade.  Rather Adam Smith argued...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The late recovery in US equities before the weekend did little good for Asian markets. Nearly all the Asian equity markets moved lower, led by the 1.0% decline in Japan’s Topix.  It was the third successive loss for the Topix, which is the long losing streak of the year so far. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index...