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A Quick Chart Overview Below is an overview of charts we picked to illustrate the current market situation. The selection is a bit random, but not entirely so. The first set of charts concerns positioning and sentiment. As one would expect, these look fairly stretched at the moment, but there are always ways in which they could become even more stretched. First a look at the NAAIM exposure index: NAAIM Exposure Index,...

© Helder Almeida | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Switzerland continues to see a disconnect between executive pay and company performance three years after voters passed some of the world’s strictest limits on compensation, according to a study by corporate governance group Ethos. While the so-called fat-cat initiative has helped to improve transparency, absolute amounts paid to top managers and the boards of...

Summary: Obama Administration has taken a hardline against China’s trade practices. Other countries are also resisting China’s arguments that it is a market economy. Last week, US imposed anti-dumping duties on imported washing machines from China. As was the campaign and the initial appointments, the election of an unorthodox candidate promises to change the way things are done in Washington. However, just as...

The Democratic Party has become everything it once was against. Let’s get one thing straight right at the start: criticizing the Democratic Party and its ruling elites is not the same as “supporting Trump.” The either-or accusation is a classic propaganda technique to silence dissent. During the Vietnam War, for example, anyone dissenting against the official narratives supporting the war was accused of “supporting the...

Summary China will raise the sales tax on small cars to 7.5% in 2017. New methodology used by Turkstat to measure Turkish GDP has led to significant upward revisions. Turkish authorities are growing more concerned about the weak lira. Fitch moved the outlook on Chile. Chile’s central bank shifted to an expansionary policy bias. Colombia selected Juan Jose Echavarria to be the new central bank governor. Fitch revised...

When Draghi extended QE in the November ECB meeting, it is was clear that Draghi was wrong. He is expecting lower inflation in 2018, maybe around 1%. The SNB reduced her inflation expectation by 0.1% for both years again, 0.1% in 2017 and 0.5% in 2018. Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. Interest on sight...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling has made steady gains against the CHF over the past month and although the spike has levelled this week, the Pound has certainly gained a foothold. Yesterday’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise their base rate from 0.25% to 0.5% did little to shift the value of GBP/CHF but with investors...

I had the privilege of joining Scarlet Fu and Joe Wisenthal on the set of What’d You Miss on Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon. It was within a couple of hours of the second Fed rate hike in a decade.   The dollar rallied.I was surprised by the changed forecasts.  The median forecast, which is not the same thing as the Fed view, edged about 25 bp higher across the forecasting horizon. I had thought the the aspirational...

But, but, but… growth, and inflation, and supply cuts, and growth again… Well that de-escalated quickly… As Libya restarts exports and The Fed sends the dollar soaring so WTI crude prices just broke back to a $49 handle for the first time since Dec 8th. WTI CrudeWTI Crude - Click to enlarge “The OPEC cuts are going to prevent some of the mega-glut,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug,...

  Long Term Seasonal Price Trends Prices in financial and commodity markets are exhibiting seasonal trends. This applies to the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium as well. Platinum Crystal, image via shapeways.com - Click to enlarge The chart below depicts the seasonal trends of the gold price over a time period of 45 years. Gold prices typically experience a seasonal rally in the second half of the...