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The US presidential selection process is well underway, and yet there has been no coherent discussion of fiscal policy. In part, this is because it does not appear particularly urgent. The US deficit peaked in 2009 at 10.1% of GDP.  Last year it stood at what for most OECD countries an enviable 2.6%.  This year and next it is forecast by private sector economists to reach 2.9%. There are many who arguethat monetary policy has been as accommodative as possible.  With the expansion entering...

Global capital markets staged an impressive recovery after the initial reaction to the failure to freeze oil output sent reverberations through the oil markets, commodities, and Asian equities. The sharp reversal begun in Europe and extended in North America has been sustained. Oil prices remain firm. Perhaps the realization that the labor dispute in Kuwait has reduced output by as much as 60% (to 1.1mln barrels a day) helped underpin prices. The fall in output may be of greater immediate...

The Oppressed U.S. Taxpayer This year, Americans’ day of tribute to their federal overlords falls on April 18.  As calculated by the Tax Foundation, the average American will work from January 1 to April 24 (Tax Freedom Day) to pay his share of taxes to all levels of government with some $3.3 trillion to be forked over to the federal government and $1.6 trillion to state and local jurisdictions. [1] Image via forbes.com While any talk of tax cuts are verboten on the Democratic...

Sorry, I've looked everywhere but I can't find the page you're looking for. If you follow the link from another website, I may have removed or renamed the page some time ago. You may want to try searching for the page: Searching for the terms %3Futm+source%3Dfeedburner%26utm+medium%3Dfeed%26utm+campaign%3DFeed%3A+SnbChf+%28SNB+%26+CHF%3A+The+Swiss+National+Bank+and+Swiss+Franc+Blog%29%26utm+content%3DGoogle+UK ...

19.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Labour Force (0353-1603-90) Swiss Labour Force Survey 2015 Large increase in labour market participation of 55 to 64 year-olds Neuchâtel, 19.04.2016 (FSO) – In 2015 the average age of the economically active population was 41.6 years (+0.7 years compared with 2010). The ageing of the economically active population is associated with an increased labour participation of 55 to 64 year-olds: between 2010 and 2015 the economic activity rate of this age group rose by...

Over the better part of the past year, we’ve documented the curious case of 1MDB, Malaysia’s government investment fund founded in 2009. It’s a long and exceptionally convoluted story that doesn’t exactly lend itself to a concise summary but suffice to say that the development bank was something of a black box right from the beginning and in 2013, some $680 million allegedly tied to 1MDB ended up in Malaysian PM Najib Razak’s personal bank account just prior to an election. There are any...

  Business under Pressure A recent post by Mish points to the fact that many of the business-related data that have been released in recent months continue to point to growing weakness in many parts of the business sector. We show a few charts illustrating the situation below: A long term chart of total business sales. The recent decline seems congruent with a recession, but many other indicators are not yet confirming a recession – click to enlarge. Wholesale inventories to sales...

I am very pleased to report that the Free Portfolio in its deadline week exceeded my target of 15%, having reached a return of 16.84%, helped by a gain of 2.7%! The purpose of the portfolio was to give readers irrefutable evidence of the unique power of the Grail Equity Management System (GEMS) to generate high returns with no more risk than the S&P 500. High Return: This graph shows that the mother portfolio has a margin of safety vis-à-vis the index of 23.1%,   Low Risk: The...

There has been much confusion, at time quite angry, how in the aftermath of the Soros-funded Panama Papers revelations few, if any, prominent U.S. name emerged as a result of the biggest offshore tax leak in history. Now, thanks to McClatchy more U.S. names are finally being revealed and it will probably come as little surprise that many of the newly revealed names have connection to both Bill and Hillary Clinton. Connections to Bill and Hillary Clinton As McClatchy writes, donors to...

EM ended last week on a firm note.  Given the absence of any Fed-specific risks or any major US data releases, that firmness could carry over into this week.  The failure to reach an agreement in Doha by oil producers is weighing on some countries through lower oil prices, but the global liquidity story ultimately remains risk-supportive for the time being.  China data last week was also helpful for market sentiment. Specific country risk remains in play.  The Brazil impeachment process...