Tag Archives: newsletter

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: US 10-year rate premium is the largest in 2.5 years. US 2-year premium is the most since Q4 2008. Japanese investors likely will be buying foreign bonds, while foreigners may see opportunities in Japanese stocks after being large sellers in the first 9...

Share of World GDP A Brave New World is coming? Perhaps. We had a recent discussion with a group of people in the hopeless business of doing long term forecasting. This made us think about what the world will look like over the next 20 to 40 years. A pretty thankless task, but the bottom line is without a damn good war, Asia will be the way of the future. As an experiment, assume, as most long term forecasters do,...

I was just as surprised as anyone by the election outcome.   The initial market reaction was not as surprising, but the dramatic reversal was.  About a dozen hours after the election was called, John Authers from the Financial Times came to my office and we chatted.  Check out the cool video here.

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Money markets and the Swiss franc have diverged despite a presumed increase in event risk from the U.S. Presidential election. Moreover, shorts against the Swiss franc have risen. This surprising divergence opens up a presumed opportunity use the franc as...

Comment on Swiss Franc by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 07 (see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The DAX also gapped lower before the weekend and gapped higher today.  It is stalling just ahead of the earlier gap from last week...

Swiss consumer price inflation remain lowest compared to Eurozone and U.S. Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter. In Europe, we see the opposite phenomenon: Rents in Spain or Italy are falling. In Germany and Switzerland rent...

Headlines Week November 04, 2016:  No interventions, EUR/CHF under 1.08 with political jitters Sight Deposits: show that the SNB has not intervened to sustain the euro, that dipped under EUR/CHF 1.08. We considered the 1.08 as line in sand for the SNB. FX: The odds of Trump are rising. This causes fear and demand for Swiss Franc. The EUR/CHF fell to 1.0750. Euro/Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 07(see more posts...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Neither the Mexican peso’s performance nor the fed funds futures seem to show that investors think the election is very close. Not all poll analysis showed what the Financial Times called “knife-edge”. None of the poll analysis showed Trump winning, and...

Ticking Time Bomb “There are more things in heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” – William Shakespeare, Hamlet The American populace counts down to Election Day with impatient intent. Will their party man occupy the White House come January 21, 2017? Or will their party woman occupy a federal prison cell? These are questions that only the good wisdom of time can answer. Here at the...

Angela Merkel © Joachim Eckel | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Swiss talks with the European Union about immigration restrictions mustn’t be impacted by the U.K.’s decision to leave the bloc, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. “In the EU, we should carry on negotiations with Switzerland in the same way as we would have if there were no question on Britain,” Merkel said after a meeting with Swiss President Johann...