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© Jorisvo | Dreamstime.com After three years of uncertainty, Switzerland may just have solved its immigration dispute with the European Union. Lawmakers in Bern on Friday passed a bill designed to curb EU immigration by giving locals a head start on filling job vacancies. By supporting the measure — which sidesteps quotas — they aim to prevent a deeper dispute that could cost the country crucial trade deals. “In the...

 See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Rate Hike Heeded by Gold, Ignored by Stocks The price action was not what most of those in the gold community hoped for (or predicted). The price of gold dropped another $24 and that of silver nearly a whole dollar. The big news of course is that the Fed hiked rates another 25 basis points. So far, stock market...

Speculators appeared mostly interested in reducing exposure in the run-up to the US jobs data and the Italian referendum. They liquidated gross longs in the currency futures market and covered shorts. Of the eight currencies we track there were two exceptions, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K...

Summary: The Nikkei, the dollar-yen and 10 yr US yield have risen nine of the past 11 weeks. The Dollar Index and 2 yr US yields have risen while gold has sold off in eight of past 11 weeks. Issue in next two weeks, profit-taking or trend extension? Spoiler alert: I expect some profit-taking. The capital markets have been buffeted by political developments and central bank policies.  The direct influence of high...

Stock Markets EM ended the weak on a soft note, as the hawkish Fed decision continued to have reverberations for global markets. Worst performers in EM last week were CLP (-3.3%), ZAR (-2%), and KRW (-1.5%). With little fundamental news expected this week, markets may take a more consolidative tone, especially with the holidays approaching. However, we continue to believe that the global backdrop for EM remains...

Summary: Review of recent BIS report. US election spurred a substantial change in sentiment. Equity and bond market reactions are roughly similar to when Reagan was elected, with the dollar, at least initially, stronger than then. The Bank of International Settlement asks in its quarterly report if there has been “a paradigm shift in the markets?”   Although it does not provide an explicit answer, it does...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index reduced its losses to 2 percent in the last month, while the dollar index is still 2.5 percent up. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 16(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: FT.com - Click to enlarge The chart shows the massive advance of the dollar index in the last three years, while the Swiss Franc index lagged. Swiss Franc Currency Index (3...

In the cutthroat world of commodities trading, there’s no bigger prize than Russia. The country of Vladimir Putin has it all: oil, natural gas, aluminum, nickel, wheat, coal and many other riches. The world’s biggest trading houses have jostled over it for decades.[embedded content] In recent years, Trafigura Group had pushed ahead of arch-rival Glencore Plc in Russian oil trading. Now, Glencore Chief Executive Officer...

This is a blatantly politicized “report” that is not supported by any evidence, nor is it supported by the other 16 intelligence agencies. The recent pronouncement by the C.I.A. that Russian hackers intervened in the U.S. presidential election doesn’t pass the sniff test–on multiple levels. Let’s consider the story on the most basic levels. 1. If the report is so “secret,” why is it dominating the news flow? 2. Why was...

As if things were not already chaotic enough in the socialist utopia of Venezuela, following President Nicolas Maduro’s decision to follow Indian PM Modi’s playbook and announce that the nation’s largest denomination bill (100-Bolivars – worth around 3c) will be pulled from circulation in 72 hours, he has tonight closed the border to Colombia to crackdown on currency smuggling by so-called “mafias”. As AP reports,...