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Tag Archives: newsletter

Will Ireland Be First Country In World To See Bail-in Regime?

Deposit bail-in risks are slowly being realised in Ireland, after it emerged overnight that FBD, one of Ireland’s largest insurance companies, have been moving cash out of Irish bank deposits and into bonds. Revelations regarding deposit bail-in risks came in the wake of warnings of a new property crash centred on the housing market in Ireland. The former deputy governor of the Central Bank warned in an op-ed in a...

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Retail Snails

Second Half Recovery Dented by “Resurgent Consumer” We normally don’t comment in real time on individual economic data releases. Generally we believe it makes more sense to occasionally look at a bigger picture overview, once at least some of the inevitable revisions have been made. The update we posted last week (“US Economy, Something is Not Right”) is an example. We’ll make an exception today though. Our friend...

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FX Daily, August 15: Dollar Eases to Start the New Week

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc was nearly unchanged against the euro. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar closed the pre-weekend session well off its lows that were seen in response to the disappointing retail sales report. It has been unable to sustain the upside momentum, and as North American dealers prepare to return to their posts, it is trading lower against most of the major currencies. The notable...

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Bretton Woods: RIP

Summary: Some romanticists want to have another Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime. Bretton Woods had difficulty from nearly the day it went operational. It is misguided to think a new rigid regime is needed or is appropriate. Today is the anniversary of the final blow to the dollar-gold standard. By August 15, 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was limited to central banks, and US President...

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, July 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.8 percent YoY

15.08.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1607-50) The Producer Price Index or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes how the changes in price for producers and importers. For us it interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. I When producers and importers profit on lower prices (compared to other countries), then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. In...

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

United States EM FX ended the week on a soft note, despite the weaker than expected US retail sales report. Official concern about strong exchange rates is beginning to emerge. First it was Korea, then on Friday it was Brazil as acting President Temer said his country needs to maintain a balanced exchange rate, neither too weak nor too strong. We expect more pushback to emerge if the current rally is extended....

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Switch to Small Net Long CHF

Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures continued at a low pace in the Commitment of Traders report for the week ending August 9.  There were though two distinct patterns: Speculators reduced their exposure in EUR, CHF and peso. Speculator increased their exposure in JPY, GBP, CAD and NZD. Euro, Swiss Franc, Peso: Lower Exposures The first pattern is found in the euro, Swiss franc,...

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FX Weekly Review, August 08 – August 12: Finally an Improvement of the CHF Index

Swiss Franc Currency Index The CHF index experienced its first good week since many weeks, when we compare it against the dollar index. It is up 1.25%, while the USD index lags with -0.50%. Click to enlarge. Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket) On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar...

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Golden Stockpiles – The Key to Gold as a Store of Value and Safe Haven

By Ronan Manly, BullionStar Much is written in the precious metals world about gold’s characteristics, and how the behaviour of the gold price allows gold to play the role of unique financial asset that retains its purchasing power over time, acts as a safe haven, diversifies risk, and provides hedging benefits. However, much of the material written in this area skips over an explanation of how the simple yet powerful...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

S&P upgraded Korea a notch to AA with a stable outlook Voters passed the constitutional referendum in Thailand by a wide margin The IMF and Egypt have reached a staff-level agreement on a 3-year $12 bln loan program Argentina’s central bank will begin using a new overnight rate to manage monetary policy Political uncertainty has returned to Brazil In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Colombia (+6.3%),...

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