Tag Archives: newsletter

I had the privilege of joining Scarlet Fu and Joe Wisenthal on the set of What’d You Miss on Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon. It was within a couple of hours of the second Fed rate hike in a decade.   The dollar rallied.I was surprised by the changed forecasts.  The median forecast, which is not the same thing as the Fed view, edged about 25 bp higher across the forecasting horizon. I had thought the the aspirational...

But, but, but… growth, and inflation, and supply cuts, and growth again… Well that de-escalated quickly… As Libya restarts exports and The Fed sends the dollar soaring so WTI crude prices just broke back to a $49 handle for the first time since Dec 8th. WTI CrudeWTI Crude - Click to enlarge “The OPEC cuts are going to prevent some of the mega-glut,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug,...

  Long Term Seasonal Price Trends Prices in financial and commodity markets are exhibiting seasonal trends. This applies to the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium as well. Platinum Crystal, image via shapeways.com - Click to enlarge The chart below depicts the seasonal trends of the gold price over a time period of 45 years. Gold prices typically experience a seasonal rally in the second half of the...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Pound is entering mid-December in the same fashion it begun the month after having a very strong November as well. After being buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory and the High Courts ruling that parliamentary approval is needed before invoking Article 50, the Pound has been boosted further after economic data...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. A Lawsuit Makes Waves The price action was mixed last week. Those hoping for dollar declines in gold terms were disappointed. However, silver gave them a sop as the price of the buck declined by one one-hundredth of a gram of silver. In Monetarist terms, gold went down $18 and silver up 11 cents. Monetarism, in its...

© Kevkhiev Yury | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge The Switzerland attorney general’s office is shifting its focus to banks operating in the country as it continues to investigate Brazil’s bribery scandal, after plea deals with individual executives provided fresh insights into how the illicit funds flowed through the financial system. Attorney General Michael Lauber said in an interview that he’s reviewing how Swiss...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named "Producer and Import Price Index" describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Censorship is not helpful to democracy–rather, it is the death of democracy. The mainstream media is awash with hyper-active headlines about “fake news.” How can we make sense of this sudden obsession? Perhaps we can start by separating “news” from “analysis” from “commentary.” “News” is “he said this, she did that, this happened.” Analysis tries to make sense of trends that are apparent in the news longer-term–for...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies.  The dollar finished yesterday’s North American session on a soft note, but follow through selling has been limited.  After rallying to near 10-month high above JPY116 yesterday, the greenback finished on session lows near JPY115.00. ...

Summary: The UK reports inflation, employment and retail sales this week. The BOE meets but will keep rates steady. The US 2-year premium over the UK is the highest since at least 1992 today. United Kingdom While the Federal Reserve meeting is the highlight this week, the UK has a number economic reports and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets.   The UK reports inflation tomorrow, followed...