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Zurich – © Europhotos | Dreamstime.com Six Swiss regions make the top ten most prosperous regions of Europe measured in terms of GDP per person, according to an analysis by the University of Lausanne. The six Swiss regions are Zurich (3rd), Ticino (4th), Basel (5th), the region around Zug (6th), Bern-Solothurn (7th) and Suisse romande, Switzerland French-speaking region (8th). The only regions ranked higher were...

In 2016, withdrawals of gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange totalled 1970 tonnes, the 4th highest annual total on record. This was 24% less than SGE gold withdrawals recorded in 2015, which reached a cumulative 2596 tonnes (See Koos Jansen’s  6 January 2017 blog at BullionStar “How The West Has Been Selling Gold Into A Black Hole” for more details of the 2016 withdrawals). SGE gold withdrawals are an important metric...

Second, and ultimately, Maron’s success will depend on his ability to revive the French economy. The French economy has been a lagged for several years.  The unemployment rate is near 10%, more than twice the UK and US rate.  The German unemployment rate is below 6%, and the lowest since unification.  Macron will likely emphasize labor market reforms and tax cuts. France Unemployment Rate, Q1 2017(see more posts on...

Retail sales estimates are not adjusted for inflation, but even so whenever they get down toward the 3% growth level you can be sure there is serious economic trouble. The 6-month average for overall retail sales dropped below 3% in March 2001, the month that marked the start of the official dot-com recession (though that is not the official name for the cyclical peak, it probably should be). They would remain near or...

Discover new 20 and 50-franc notes on mobile devices The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is releasing an app for mobile devices, designed to help the public familiarise themselves with the new banknotes. The app – an updated version of the ‘50-franc’ app launched last year to accompany the issue of the new 50-franc note – is now called ‘Swiss Banknotes’ and can be downloaded free of charge from the Apple (itunes.apple.com)...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). GBP/CHF Inflation data weakens Sterling. Yesterday saw the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI is a measure of inflation and yesterday we saw a rise from 2.3% to 2.7% month on month. Usually a rise in inflation is deemed as good for an economy, but on this occasion it is a worrying sign. The rapid rise is a direct result of the...

I was on Bloomberg’s Day Break with the team and guest Anne Lester from JP Morgan discussing oil and inflation. Oil prices had bounced back at the end of last week and were lifted further on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia were inclined to support extending output cuts not just until the end of the year, but through Q1 18. I make two points. First, that US yields seem to be largely decoupled from the oil prices. This...

UN experts estimate pesticides cause 200,000 deaths a year, 99% of which occur in developing countries (Keystone) In the wake of a Chinese takeover of the Swiss agribusiness group Syngenta, a Swiss advocacy group raises concerns about Switzerland’s regulatory role. Switzerland exports two powerful herbicides, atrazine and paraquat, to developing countries. However, these products, manufactured by Basel giant Syngenta,...

  Correlation vs. Causation A very good visual correlation between the yearly percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) and the yearly percentage change in the price of oil seems to provide support to the popular thinking that future changes in price inflation in the US are likely to be set by the yearly growth rate in the price of oil (see first chart below). Gushing forth… a Union Oil Co. oil well sometime...

China’s trade statistics for April 2017 uniformly disappointed. They only did so, however, because expectations are being calibrated as if the current economy is actually different. It is instead merely swinging between bouts of contraction and low-grade growth, but so low-grade it really doesn’t qualify as growth. Positive numbers do get the mind racing, but since the end of 2011 there is almost a speed limit on how...