Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.1026 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are mostly treading water ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Asia Pacific and European equities drifted lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index appears to have snapped a four-day advance, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was trading slightly lower for the second...

I joined Tom Keene and Marty Schenker (chief content officer) on the set of Bloomberg TV this morning. Schenker discussed some of the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, and Keene asked about the impact on the dollar. I expressed my concern that the chief threat to the dollar’s role in the world economy is the several administrations have increasing weaponized access to the dollar and the dollar funding market. It used to be a public good, a utility if you will....

The week ahead will help shape the investment climate for the remainder of the year.  The highlights include three central bank meetings (Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada).  Among the high-frequency data, the US and the eurozone report the first estimates of Q3 GDP, and the US October jobs data and auto sales will be released.  Investors will also get the preliminary Oct CPI for EMU. A few hours before the FOMC meeting concludes on October 30,...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.1014 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: As the UK awaits the EU’s decision on its request, disappointing flash PMI readings Japan, Australia, and Germany have filled the news vacuum. Sweden’s Riksbank retained a hawkish tone while keeping rates on hold, and Norway’s Norges Bank also stood pat. The market expects Turkey to...

Three themes have dominated the investment climate: US-China tensions, Brexit, and the policy response to the disinflationary forces. None have been resolved, which contributes to the uncertainty for businesses, households, and investors. However, the negativity that has prevailed is receding a little. It begins with the most substantive progress on Brexit in months, but also entails a possible new tariff truce between the US and China. Indeed, we irreverently...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.35% to 1.0912 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today’s activity. Asia Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea was...

Many high-income countries experienced little growth but strong price pressures in the 1970s. Since the mainstream economics said the two were mutually exclusive, a new term had to be created, hence stagflation. Fast forward almost half a century later, and mainstream economists are still having a problem deciphering the linkages between prices and economic activity, such as inflation and employment. Theory needs to accommodate the new facts. Theory is being...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.66% to 1.0928 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Shockingly poor ISM data sent shivers through the market on Tuesday and hand the S&P 500 its biggest loss in five weeks and took the shine off the greenback. The S&P 500 reached a five-day high before reversing course and cast a pall over today’s activity. All the markets were...

United States The world’s largest economy appears to have grown by about 2% in Q3 at an annualized pace, the same as in Q2, and in line with what many Fed officials understand to be trend growth. The strength of the US labor market underpins consumption, the powerful engine of the US economy. The latest readings of both the labor market and consumption will highlight the economic data in the week ahead. The strength of the recent housing data (starts and sales)...

Something happened in the credit market this week. A Barron’s article about it began: “There have been disruptions in the plumbing of U.S. markets this week. While the process of fixing them was bumpy, it was more of a technical mishap than a cause for investor concern.” Keep Calm and Carry On So, before they tell us what happened, they tell us it’s just plumbing, it’s been fixed, and that we should not be concerned. The article asserts that the reasons for the...