Tag Archives: Featured

Today’s Governing Council meeting did little to break the seasonal torpor. We continue to expect its first rate hike to come in September 2019. There was no change in interest rates or forward guidance at today’s ECB Governing Council meeting. The Governing Council reaffirmed that bond purchases will end in December and that key interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels “at least through the summer...

© Jakub Jirsák | Dreamstime.com In Switzerland, the official retirement age for women is 64, a year earlier than it is for men. A poll by gfs.bern shows that around two thirds are in favour of raising the retirement age of women to 65. Only 16% are against the idea, with a further 18% somewhat against it. Men (78%) are more in favour of the change than women (54%), according to the newspaper 20 Minutes. In addition,...

Note: This will be a short update. We are shifting the timing of some of our reports. The monthly Global Asset Allocation update will now be published in the first week of the month, aiming for the first of each month. I’ll put out a full report next week. The Bi-Weekly Economic Review is shifting to a monthly update, published on the 15th of each month. We are doing this to make room for some new reports, podcasts and...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.29% to 1.1597 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar is mostly firmer. The Australian dollar is off the most (~0.35%, ~$0.7425), after peaking a little above $0.7460. The price action reinforces the $0.7300-$0.7500 range. The yen is the strongest of the majors. Near JPY110.80, the yen...

A Spike in Bank Lending to Corporations – Sign of a Dying Boom? As we have mentioned on several occasions in these pages, when a boom nears its end, one often sees a sudden scramble for capital. This happens when investors and companies that have invested in large-scale long-term projects in the higher stages of the production structure suddenly realize that capital may not be as plentiful as they have previously...

In 1999, real GDP growth in the United States was 4.69% (Q4 over Q4). In 1998, it was 4.9989%. These were annual not quarterly rates, meaning that for two years straight GDP expanded by better than 4.5%. Individual quarters within those years obviously varied, but at the end of the day the economy was clearly booming. It also helped that these particular two years followed two good ones before them. GDP growth in 1997...

A cry was heard last week when President Trump expressed displeasure with the Fed’s rate hikes. Some, like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, claimed that this was another step toward becoming a “banana republic.” Jeffrey Sachs, another noted economist, claimed that “American democracy is probably one more war away from collapsing into tyranny.” The line that Trump supposedly crossed did not change investors’...

UBS may have seen quarterly profits rise year-on-year, but chief executive Sergio Ermotti says the threat of trade wars and political unrest has dampened investor enthusiasm and continues to hold back financial markets. - Click to enlarge UBS may have seen quarterly profits rise year-on-year, but chief executive Sergio Ermotti says the threat of trade wars and political unrest has dampened investor enthusiasm and...

Rising bank credit flows confirm that domestic fundamentals remain solid across most of the euro area. The ECB’s M3 and credit report for June just published confirms that lending dynamics continue to be in a good shape in the euro area, boding well for private investment. Bank credit flows to non-financial corporations (adjusted for seasonal effects and securitisations) amounted to €10bn in June, down from €25bn in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.1613 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is trapped in narrow trading ranges. That itself is news. At the end of last week ago, the US President seemed to have opened another front in his campaign to re-orient US relationships by appearing to talk the dollar down....