Tag Archives: Featured

Many are still celebrating the Easter holiday today, but not Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz and the Bloomberg team. They hosted me on Bloomberg TV today. As is often the case, the discussion was broad, covering the pressing economic and financial issues. In the first clip, which runs about 2.5 minutes, I sketch out the argument for the US economy being in a late-stage expansion. I cite the 12-month moving average of...

Comparing the most recent statistics on Swiss consumer inflation to those in 1993 reveals a steep drop in the percentage of spending allocated to food. © Tero Vesalainen | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge When statisticians calculate consumer price rises they look at the prices of a standard basket of goods. In 1993, food and non-alcoholic beverages made up 14.3% of the value of this standard basket. By 2018, the...

Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018 – Gold signs off Q1 2018 with best run since 2011 – Gold price supported by safe haven demand, interest-rate concerns and inflation – Trade wars and concerns over equity market have sent investors towards gold – ETF holdings highest in nearly a decade – Goldman Sachs: ‘The dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to stay’ Gold ended March with it’s best performance...

The vise will tighten until something breaks. It could be the currency, it could be the political status quo, it could be the credit/debt system–or all three. The problem with an economy dominated by state-enforced cartels and quasi-monopolies is that prices rise (since cartels can push higher costs onto the consumer) but wages don’t (since cartels can either dominate local labor markets or engage in global wage...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.1746 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar drifted a little lower in Asia to start the week while equities had a slightly heavier bias. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%. European bourses are mostly closed for the extended Easter holiday, while the S&P is...

Swedish businessman Lundgren has been EasyJet's chief executive since December 2017. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge In an interview given to the SonntagsZeitung on Sunday, EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren described the company’s strategy for increasing its already-growing share of passengers in the Swiss market. Lundgren told the German-language paper than in recent years, the low-cost British airline has counted...

Stock Markets EM FX was mostly stronger last week, despite the dollar’s firm tone against the majors. Best EM performers on the week were MXN, KRW, and COP while the worst were ZAR, INR, and PEN. US jobs data poses the biggest risk to EM this week, as US yields have been falling ahead of the data. Indeed, the current US 10-year yield of 2.74% is the lowest since February 6. We remain cautious on EM FX, and do not think...

Nothing stays the same in dynamic systems, and it’s inevitable that the current glut of low costs / cheap stuff will give way to scarcities that cannot be filled at current low prices. One of the books I just finished reading is The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire. The thesis of the book is fascinating to those of us interested in the rise and fall of empires: Rome expanded for many reasons, but...

- Click to enlarge Genial aus der Sicht der Banken war, dass sie das fraktionelle Reservesystem in das Zeitalter des FED hinüberretten konnten – sie waren selber erstaunt, dass ihnen dies gelang und der Geniestreich nur von einigen wenigen Senatoren und Beobachtern durchschaut wurde. So konnten sie ihr eigenes Buchgeld weiterhin emittieren und dies einzig und allein mit dem Versprechen, es jederzeit in Bargeld...

The chief uncertainty has shifted from monetary policy and macroeconomics to the increase of volatility in the stock markets and the prospects of a trade war. Some of the major benchmarks, including the S&P 500, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and Shanghai Composite held above the February lows in the retreat during the second half of March. Other bourses did not. These include the DAX,...