Tag Archives: Euro area GDP growth

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” – in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate. That said, ECB President Mario Draghi...

Euro area GDP growth and inflation forecasts have been revised up, reflecting growing confidence over the macro outlook.During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation.The key word was “confidence”- in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its...

Better-than-expected Flash PMI numbers in September mean that the quarter is ending on a strong note, with some upside risks ahead.Flash PMI surveys for the euro area ended the third quarter on a strong note. The composite flash PMI increased to 56.7 in September from 55.7 in August against consensus expectations for a stable print (55.6).The breakdown by sub-indices showed pretty strong signals in most forward-looking components, with the sole weak spot manufacturing new export orders....

GDP figures have been considerably revised in the euro area and in Switzerland in the wake of Q2 data, leading to mechanical changes in our growth forecasts for this year.Revisions to GDP figures have been massive in the euro area and in Switzerland following the publication of Q2 GDP data. The resultant changes in our forecasts are mechanical, and do not reflect a change in our growth profile for H2 2017 and beyond.Recent data released by Eurostat have resulted in a further upward revision...

The latest Q2 GDP figures published by France and Spain point to solid growth for the euro area. We maintain our euro area GDP growth forecast at 1.9% for 2017 as a whole.France and Spain today were the first big countries in the euro area to publish GDP growth figures for Q2 2017. French real GDP rose by 0.5% q-o-q in Q2 2017, the same pace as the two previous quarters. The details showed that domestic demand remained solid, while the sharp improvement in net exports offset the fall in...

PMI surveys for the euro area eased somewhat in July, suggesting that momentum slowed at the start of Q3. We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 1.9% for 2017.The composite flash PMI fell to 55.8 in July from 56.4 in May, below consensus expectations (56.2). The headline dip was entirely driven by the manufacturing index, which fell to 56.8 in July from 57.4 in June. By contrast, the services index remained stable at 55.4. The PMI’s forward-looking components remained pretty strong, despite...

Euro area M3 and credit flows for May were pretty strong overall. Our GDP growth forecast remains unchanged for the euro area.Euro area credit flows to non-financial corporations increased again in May, by EUR10 bn in adjusted terms, following a gain of EUR11 bn in April.Broad money growth (M3) rose marginally from 4.9% to 5.0% y-o-y. Bank lending growth to the private sector was broadly unchanged at 2.6% y-o-y, in line with leading indicators.Overall, we are keeping unchanged our GDP growth...

GDP shows economic performance is somewhere between what hard and soft data are suggesting.According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate released today, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.5% q-o-q in Q1 2017 (+0.455% q-o-q; 1.8% q-o-q annualised; 1.7% y-o-y), slightly above consensus expectations (0.4%). This flash estimate confirms that most business confidence surveys overestimated growth at the beginning of the year, with the ‘true pace’ of economic expansion lying somewhere in between...

Available data point towards 0.5% GDP growth in the euro area in the first quarter.France and Spain today became the first big countries in the euro area to publish GDP growth figures for Q1. French real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2017, down from +0.5% q-o-q in Q4, and lower than what was expected by the consensus.The details were more encouraging than the headline figure. In particular, investment accelerated sharply. Some of the weaknesses in private consumption were explained by...

3Q GDP growth in the euro area met expectations. The play off between strong business indicators and weak-ish credit dynamics means we maintain our full-year growth forecast of 1.5% in 2016.Euro area real GDP expanded at a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) rate of 0.3% in Q2 (1.4% q-o-q annualised, 1.6% year on year), in line with expectations and our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 and 0.5% q-o-q in Q1.Looking ahead, risks to our scenario for the euro area economy...