Tag Archives: EUR

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is being sold across the board today. The US Dollar Index is off 0.65% late in the European morning, which, if sustained, would make it the largest drop in two weeks. The proximate cause being cited by participants and the media is weak US data that is prompting a Fed re-think. However, we are a bit skeptical. It is not that the US data has been strong, or that...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc was nearly unchanged against the euro. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar closed the pre-weekend session well off its lows that were seen in response to the disappointing retail sales report. It has been unable to sustain the upside momentum, and as North American dealers prepare to return to their posts, it is trading lower against most of the major currencies. The notable...

Summary: The GDP deflator may be just as important as overall growth for BOJ considerations and the possibility of fresh action next month. Falling UK rates and a weaker pound are desirable from a policy point of view. Dudley’s press conference may be more important than FOMC minutes. Two German state elections that will be held next month comes as Merkel’s popularity has waned. Japan Japan’s Q2 GDP: The...

Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures continued at a low pace in the Commitment of Traders report for the week ending August 9.  There were though two distinct patterns: Speculators reduced their exposure in EUR, CHF and peso. Speculator increased their exposure in JPY, GBP, CAD and NZD. Euro, Swiss Franc, Peso: Lower Exposures The first pattern is found in the euro, Swiss franc,...

Swiss Franc Once again, EUR/CHF reverses in the middle of the week. A part from technical reasons, the weak French CPI (+0.4% YoY) and Italian CPI (-0.2% YoY) exercised downwards pressure on the euro. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar has found steadier footing today after trading heavily yesterday.  There are two main themes.  The first is sterling’s heavy tone.  After closing the North American session...

Summary: LIBOR continues to rise. The relative calm of the markets will likely end next month. The last four months of the year are jammed with key events that have potential to disrupt the markets. US LIBOR continues to rise.  LIBOR may not be what it was before the Great Financial Crisis, or before the scandalous revelations.  However, it remains an important benchmark. Three-month LIBOR rose from around...

Summary: Spain and Portugal need to make some relatively small budget adjustments or will be denied some transfer payments. Spain’s political situation is fluid, but another window of opportunity to break the logjam is at hand. The euro seems immune to these fiscal developments; some retracement objectives are in sight. The eurozone finance ministers have accepted the EC’s recommendation that Spain and...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc appreciated today against the euro. Given that the Bank of England started monetary easing, this slight appreciation is unexpectedly weak – reason was probably intervention. The SNB intervention level should be around 1 billion francs. Numbers revealed in next week’s sight deposits. Click to enlarge. Bank of England The Bank of England owns today, though tomorrow will be about the US...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses.  The greenback’s upticks have thus far been shallow and unimpressive, except perhaps against the New Zealand dollar, which is off 0.8% ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.  Softer than expected labor cost increase reinforces the conviction that a 25 bp rate cut will be delivered next week. The asset markets are more...

Swiss Franc The euro appreciated against both Swiss Franc and dollar. Swiss retail sales was again very weak, but emphasize our last month comment: The measurement of retail sales (and also GDP) ignore the active second-hand markets in Switzerland. The Swiss SVME PMI was at 50.1 close to contraction, another piece of bad data. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is offered against the major currencies, but...