Tag Archives: EUR

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is trading with a small upside bias in narrow trading ranges.  The main news has consisted of PMI reports, while investors continue to digest last week’s developments. In particular the BOJ’s underwhelming response to poor economic data and a missed opportunity to reinforce the fiscal stimulus, and the dismal US GDP. The dollar has been pinned today in the lower...

Summary: RBA meeting is a close call. BOE meeting consensus on rate cut, maybe new QE and lending-for-funding. More details of Japan’s fiscal policy. U.S. jobs data. After this week, and outside of RBNZ rate cut, August may be uneventful. There are four events this week that will command the attention of global investors. The Reserve of Bank of Australia is first.It is a close call, though the median in the...

Prospects for the Swiss Economy Remain Favourable The KOF Economic Barometer has only changed little and reached a value of 102.7 in July. In June, and therefore before the referendum in the United Kingdom about its membership in the EU, the KOF Economic Barometer stood at a value of 102.6 (revised from 102.4). Thus the Barometer has been standing above the historical average since February this year. Despite the...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc is having a very volatile week. With the European stress tests approaching and with a bad U.S. durable goods release, the EUR/CHF is on the descent again. Data on net immigration to Switzerland has been published. The number of people who are leaving Switzerland is on the rise and the net immigration number has fallen. This is positive for the euro and negative for CHF. This decrease in...

Summary: Japan reports on labor, consumption, inflation and industrial output before the BOJ meeting. ECB reports inflation and Q2 GDP and the results of the stress test on banks. US reports first look at Q2 GDP. Tomorrow could be among the most challenging sessions of the third quarter.   The focus is primarily on Japan and Europe, but the US reports its first estimate of Q2 GDP.  After a six-month soft...

Swiss Franc The Euro kept on climbing, after yesterday’s rapid rise. Click to enlarge. The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements.  The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator Japan As uncertainty over Japan’s fiscal stimulus roiled the yen and domestic...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc strangely depreciated on a day, when the other safe-haven, the yen strongly improved. The euro went up to 1.0899 by 0.54%. The reason seems to be technical. USD/CHF Finally over 200DMA? After USD/CHF broke the 200 days moving average (0.9854), and a descending channel since November 2015. This break could lead to a new pattern building. If the SNB has sustained the rise with some...

Summary: European banks are worrisome. EBA’s stress test results will be out at the end of the week. Nonperforming loans are a separate issue, but also need to be addressed. The health of European banks has reemerged as an important market factor this year.  The IMF warned that the greatest risk to global financial stability stems from three European banks.  Branches of two European banks failed the Federal...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly.  The US dollar has been largely confined to its pre-weekend ranges against most of the major currencies. Equity markets are mostly firmer following the new record highs on Wall Street.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain (0.1%), with losses in Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore offsetting gains elsewhere. ...

Summary European bank stress test results will be released a couple hours before the US open on Friday. The focus is on Italy, but other countries’ banks may also be identified as needing capital. Within the existing rules are allowances for exceptions. Everyone wants to follow the rules. The results of the latest stress tests on European banks are expected to be released at 10:00 am CET (5:00 am ET).   The...