Tag Archives: emerging markets

The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor today. Timing was a little earlier than expected, but rising inflation and a robust economy warranted it.  We think it’s too soon to talk about a rate hike, as we expect the koruna to overshoot to the strong side. Policy Outlook Price pressures are rising, with CPI accelerating to 2.5% y/y in February.  March data will be reported April 10, with consensus at 2.6%...

Summary Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with the start of the tightening cycle. The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor. Israeli central bank said it won’t hike rates until Q2 2018. Both S&P and Fitch cut South Africa’s rating one notch to sub-investment grade BB+. Moody’s put South Africa’s Baa2 rating on review for a downgrade S&P upgraded Argentina one notch to B with stable outlook....

Stock Markets EM FX was mixed last week.  The rebound in oil helped some, such as COP, RUB, and MXN.  On the other hand, idiosyncratic political risks weighed on South Africa.   This week could pose a challenge to EM, with lots of Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, and US jobs data. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, March 29 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Thailand Thailand reports March CPI Monday, which is...

Stock Markets EM FX was mixed last week.  The rebound in oil helped some, such as COP, RUB, and MXN.  On the other hand, idiosyncratic political risks weighed on South Africa.   This week could pose a challenge to EM, with lots of Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, and US jobs data. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, March 29 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Thailand Thailand reports March CPI Monday, which is...

Summary: MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance. This Great Graphic from Bloomberg is a weekly bar chart of MSCI Emerging Market equity index.   In H2 15 and H1 16, it carved out a head and shoulders bottom that we identify on the chart. We also drew in the neckline...

Summary Former Korean President Park was arrested. Hungary’s central bank was more dovish than expected. South African President Zuma finally fired Finance Minister Gordhan. Brazil’s meat industry may have seen the worst of the scandal. Banco de Mexico slowed the pace of tightening. Stock Markets In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Colombia (+2.0%), Brazil (+2.0%), and Singapore (+1.2%) have outperformed this...

India’s Rapid Degradation This is Part XI of a series of articles (the most recent of which is linked here) in which I have provided regular updates on what started as the demonetization of 86% of India’s currency. The story of demonetization and the ensuing developments were merely a vehicle for me to explore Indian institutions, culture and society. Tribal cultures face an inherent contradiction. They create poison...

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week on a firm note. Indeed, virtually all of EM was up against the dollar last week, led by ZAR and MXN. BRL and PHP were the laggards. It remains to be seen how markets react to the failure to pass the health care reform in the US. Will Trump move on the tax reform? Can the Republicans proceed with its agenda in light of the fissures within the party? Stock Markets Emerging Markets,...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Reserve Bank of India will introduce a new monetary policy tool. Moody’s raised the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from stable to positive. Fitch cut Saudi Arabia’s rating a notch to A+. Moody’s cut the outlook on Turkey’s Ba1 rating from stable to negative. China has temporarily suspended beef imports from Brazil.

Despite all of the differences and current challenges, Asian expansion is worthwhile – now more than ever. There is no question that Asia will play a prominent role in the 21st century. In 1863, it took Switzerland's Caspar Brennwald a full 122 days, or four months, to travel to Japan. Brennwald,...