Tag Archives: China

The inventory saga, planetary in its reach. As you’ve heard, American demand for goods supercharged by the federal government’s helicopter combined with a much more limited capacity to rebound in the logistics of the goods economy left a nightmare for supply chains. As we’ve been writing lately, a highly unusual maybe unprecedented inventory cycle resulted (creating “inflation”). The worse the shipping snafus, the more was ordered and piled into it – if for no...

Overview: Energy prices pulled back late yesterday, but it offered little reprieve to the bond market where the 10-year benchmark yields in the US, UK, Sweden, and Switzerland reached new three-month highs.  November WTI traded to almost $76.70 before reversing lower and leaving a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick in its wake.  The US S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped lower and did not recover, setting the stage for today’s drop in Asia.  All the major...

Overview: Rising energy prices and yields are helping lift the US dollar and weighing on equities.  November WTI has pushed above $76, while Brent traded above $80, and natural gas is up for the fourth consecutive session, during which time it has risen by about 25%.   The US 10-year yield has surged to almost 1.53%, up more than 20 bp since the middle of last week. Near 32 bp, the US 2-year yield is at a new 18-month high. European yields are 3-5 bp higher, with...

Overview:  The market's reaction to the FOMC statement was going according to our script, with the dollar backing off on a buy rumor sell the fact type of activity until Powell provided an end date for the tapering (mid-2022) before providing a start date (maybe next month).  This spurred a dollar rally.  Equities pulled back but recovered.  The dollar is paring its gains today.  It is lower against the other major currencies, but the yen, and the euro, which had...

Overview: The markets have stabilized since Monday's panic attack but have not made much headway.  China and Taiwan returned from the extended holiday weekend.  Mainland shares were mixed. Shanghai rose by about 0.4%, while Shenzhen fell by around 0.25%.  Taiwan got tagged for 2%, and Japan's Topix was off 1%.  Hong Kong and South Korean markets were closed.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firmer for the second day but is still lower for the week.  US indices...

Overview: Coming into yesterday's session, the S&P 500 had fallen in eight of the past ten sessions.  It closed on its lows before the weekend and gapped.  Nearly the stories in the press blamed China and the likely failure of one of its largest property developers, Evergrande.  Those that are prone to the sky-is-falling narratives refer to it as Lehman moment.  The S&P 's 2.7% decline yesterday was the largest in half of a year, and the VIX jumped to...

Overview: Coming into yesterday's session, the S&P 500 had fallen in eight of the past ten sessions.  It closed on its lows before the weekend and gapped.  Nearly the stories in the press blamed China and the likely failure of one of its largest property developers, Evergrande.  Those that are prone to the sky-is-falling narratives refer to it as Lehman moment.  The S&P 's 2.7% decline yesterday was the largest in half of a year, and the VIX jumped to...

Overview: Investors’ mood did not improve over the weekend, and the lack of risk appetites are rippling through the capital markets today. Equities have tumbled, yields have backed off, and the dollar is well bid.  Hong Kong and Australia led the sell-off in the Asia Pacific region, off 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Regional losses may have been larger, but Japan, Chinese (mainland), and South Korea markets were on holiday. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2%, the...

Overview: Investors’ mood did not improve over the weekend, and the lack of risk appetites are rippling through the capital markets today. Equities have tumbled, yields have backed off, and the dollar is well bid.  Hong Kong and Australia led the sell-off in the Asia Pacific region, off 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Regional losses may have been larger, but Japan, Chinese (mainland), and South Korea markets were on holiday. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2%, the...

The FT (and many other outlets) summarize a report by law firm WilmerHale which was commissioned by the World Bank: … in the 2018 edition of Doing Business, China’s overall ranking had been artificially held at 78 — the same as in the previous year — as a result of late changes that elevated its position from 85. The report alleges that Georgieva led efforts to improve China’s ranking at a time when she was “engrossed” in a campaign to secure a capital increase for the World Bank. …...