In a CEPR discussion paper, Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris, Brad Parks, and Christoph Trebesch document “How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments:” China is the world’s largest official creditor, but we lack basic facts about the terms and conditions of its lending. … We collect and analyze 100 contracts between Chinese state-owned entities and government borrowers in 24 developing countries … First, the Chinese contracts contain...
Read More »Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Stalls
Overview: US interest rates and the dollar turned higher following comments by the Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida, who appeared to throw his lot with the more hawkish members. The dollar recovered from weakness that had seen it fall to almost JPY108.70, its lowest level since late May, and lifted the euro to $1.19. Still, there has been little follow-through dollar or Treasury buying today. The euro and yen are marginally softer, but most other major currencies post...
Read More »FX Daily, July 22: Enguard Lagarde
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0828 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The rally in US shares yesterday, ostensibly fueled by strong earnings reports, is helping to encourage risk appetites today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its biggest gain in around two weeks, though Japan’s markets are closed today and tomorrow. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is...
Read More »FX Daily, July 21: Did Japan Deliver a Fait Accompli to the US?
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.18% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The biggest rally in US equities in four months has helped stabilize global shares today. In the Asia Pacific region, Japan, China, and Australian markets advanced. Led by information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 1.35% near the...
Read More »FX Daily, July 15: Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling. The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction. The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower. Fed Chair Powell did not break new...
Read More »And Now Three Huge PPIs Which Still Don’t Matter One Bit In Bond Market
And just like that, snap of the fingers, it’s gone. Without a “bad” Treasury auction, there was no stopping the bond market today from retracing all of yesterday’s (modest) selloff and then some. This despite the huge CPI estimates released before the prior session’s trading, and now PPI figures that are equally if not more obscene. The BLS reports today that its main producer price index (PPI), the one for finished goods, was up 9.19% year-over-year in June 2021....
Read More »FX Daily, July 13: Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.18% to 1.0831 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: New record highs in the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ coupled with China allowing Tencent to acquire a search engine helped lift Asia Pacific equities. It is the first back-to-back by MSCI’s regional index for more than two weeks. Australia’s market was a notable exception. The lockdown...
Read More »FX Daily, July 12: Markets Adrift ahead of Key Events
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0849 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The new week has begun quietly. The dollar is drifting a little higher against most major currencies, with the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies the heaviest. The yen and Swiss franc’s resilience seen last week is carrying over. Most liquid and freely accessible emerging market...
Read More »Measuring Inflation and the Week Ahead
There is quite an unusual price context for new week’s economic events, which include June US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with China’s Q2 GDP, and the meetings for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan. In addition, the US Treasury will sell $120 bln in coupons while the US earned income tax credit and the child tax credit is rolled out. The dollar surged even while interest rates fell. The US 10-year yield...
Read More »FX Daily, July 09: PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements after Inflation Measures Ease
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% to 1.0859 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets are winding down what has been a challenging week that has seen equity markets slide and the dollar and bonds rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific fell for the fourth consecutive session, but the more interesting story may be the intrasession recovery that could set the...
Read More »