Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

The week ahead is eventful. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings. This would make for a busy week by themselves, but there is more. Trade tensions are likely to escalate further, if the US, as scheduled provides a list of $50 bln of Chinese goods that will face another 25% tariff for intellectual property violations. If the US does so, China has threatened to retract...

With what promises to be an acrimonious G7 meeting, from which the isolated US President will depart early, and a broadening pressure in emerging markets, the US dollar turned better bid late yesterday and is recovering further today. Disappointing April industrial production figures in Germany and France did not do the euro any favors. Sterling is faring better than the euro after Prime Minister May survived yet...

The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week’s meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly. However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language. Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as “live.” For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair managed to break 0.9850 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently in the upcoming period, paving the way to head towards 0.9723 level as a next station, noting that the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid for today conditioned by the price stability below 0.9870. Expected trading range for today...

The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15. That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February. The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to carry large euro exposure. Too many observers mistakenly focus on the net...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.23% to 1.1526 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are several euro options that expire today and are stacked every quarter of a cent from $1.1675 to $1.1750. The size of the options increase with the price beginning with 688 mln euros at $1.1675, then 775 euros at $1.17, 1.1 bln euros...

The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days. Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro. The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swinging back in favor of two more Fed rate hikes this year did not trigger new...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.30% to 1.1558 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The week is ending quite a bit different than it began. The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+...

Summary: Euro has fallen 10.5 cents since mid-February. Net speculative longs in the futures market remain near record. Gross long euros have actually increased over the past month. When one trades futures, one declares whether one has an underlying business need, in which case one is considered a commercial. If no underlying business need exists, one is classified as a non-commercial, which in the vernacular of...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by -0.42% to 1.1485 CHF. EUR-CHF and USD-CHF, May 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today’s activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. ...