SNB & CHF

Suspicion Asleep You have probably noticed it already: stock market volatility has recently all but disappeared. This raises an important question for every investor: Has the market established a permanent plateau of low volatility, or is the current period of low volatility just the calm before the storm? When such questions regarding future market trends arise, it is often worthwhile to examine market history. For...

In October 2015, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bill Dudley admitted that the US economy might be slowing. In the typically understated fashion befitting the usual clownshow, he merely was acknowledging what was by then pretty obvious to anyone outside the economics profession. Dudley was at that moment, however, undaunted. His eye was cast toward the unemployment rate and that was nothing but encouraging no matter the...

Dans la série sur la balance des paiements et les zooms sur les balances commerciales, voici l’évolution de la balance commerciale américaine. Nous voyons clairement qu’elle était neutralisée à 0 durant l’ère où les devises du monde devaient être arrimées, selon les Accords de Bretton Woods, au dollar qui lui-même était partiellement couvert par l’or. La valeur du dollar devait se référer à un prix fixe de l’or de 35...

Neuchâtel, 17.08.2017 (FSO) – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter 2017 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) fell during the same period in Switzerland from 4.6% to 4.4%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 8.6% to 7.6%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force...

A Swiss woman whose parents went missing 75 years ago is relieved that their bodies have finally been found after years of searching for them. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) The missing couple were Marcelin Dumoulin, a shoemaker, and his wife Francine, a teacher. The parents of seven children also kept cattle. They disappeared on August 15, 1942 in the Glacier 3000 region, at a height of 2,600m (8,530ft), after going to tend to their cows. Their daughter, Marceline Udry-Dumoulin, says she had never...

​ Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.47% to 1.1306 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ). FX Rates The US dollar had steadied after softening in the North American afternoon yesterday when the dissolution of President Trump’s business councils as a series of executives stepped down. The FOMC minutes added more fuel to the move. The market responded to the minutes by selling the...

Summary: Yen and Swiss franc are funding currencies. This goes a long way to explaining why they rally on heightened anxiety. The Swiss have lower rates than Japan and the franc is less volatile than the yen, but technicals argue for caution. Retail investors and some institutional investors focus on the asset they want to acquire in anticipation of price appreciation. The game for some institutional investors...

Etihad is no longer willing to bail out Air Berlin’s failing business model (Keystone) Airline passengers in Switzerland are bracing themselves for a hike in prices for flights to Germany following the insolvency of budget carrier Air Berlin. The airline had been running at a loss for several years, prompting owner Etihad to pull the plug on Tuesday. Air Berlin is particularly strong at Zurich airport, operating 11...

 The oil effect continued to recede in late spring for more than just WTI prices or inflation rates. US trade on both sides, inbound and outbound, while still positive has stalled since the winter. US Exports, Jun 1989-2017 - Click to enlarge Exports grew by just 6.2% year-over-year (NSA) in June 2017, about the same pace as estimated in December 2016. After contracting for nearly two years, twenty-two months...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Bitcoin and Credit Transactions Last week, we said: It is commonly accepted to say the dollar is “printed”, but we can see from this line of thinking it is really borrowed. There is a real borrower on the other side of the transaction, and that borrower has powerful motivations to keep paying to service the debt. Bitcoin...