SNB & CHF

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Pound and the Swiss Franc have had a strange relationship since the missile strike by the US on a Syrian Government airbase last week. Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates plummeted before recovering and then exceeding expectations as we entered into the weekend. The ‘anomaly’ as some are now calling it,...

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week on a soft note, as the weaker than expected US jobs data was unable to derail the dollar’s rally. For the week, the worst performers were ZAR (-3%), TRY (-2.5%), and RUB (-2%). CZK bucked the trend, rising after the CNB exited the cap. This week, higher inflation readings in the US could draw market focus back to Fed tightening, which would be negative for EM. Risks of further flare...

There were no celebrations; no horn or trumpets, nary a sound, but an important shift took place last week. The shift was signaled by two events. The first was the US strike on Syria, and the second was investors’ willingness to look past Q1 economic data. The US missile strike on Syria was significant even if it fails to change the dynamics on the ground. It undermines the Trump Administration’s ability to “reset” the...

Swiss Franc Currency Index In the last week, the Swiss Franc index lost a little territory as compared to the dollar index. Finally it ended, where it started one month ago. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 08(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the...

The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor today. Timing was a little earlier than expected, but rising inflation and a robust economy warranted it.  We think it’s too soon to talk about a rate hike, as we expect the koruna to overshoot to the strong side. Policy Outlook Price pressures are rising, with CPI accelerating to 2.5% y/y in February.  March data will be reported April 10, with consensus at 2.6%...

Financially prudent individuals set aside surplus funds to protect against unforeseen expenditures. This way, when faced with loss of income, house repairs, car trouble, or anything else, they will have a buffer against unanticipated downturns. In the same vein, almost every state in the United States has established a “savings account” for government operations. Primarily to mitigate a decline in tax revenues that...

The idea that interest rates have nowhere to go but up is very much like saying the bond market has it all wrong. That is one reason why the rhetoric has been ratcheted that much higher of late, particularly since the Fed “raised rates” for a third time in March. Such “hawkishness” by convention should not go so unnoticed, and yet yields and curves are once more paying little attention to Janet Yellen. When Mohamed...

The US jobs growth slowed considerably more than expected in March and the disappointment pushed the dollar and equities initially lower.  United States Nonfarm payrolls The US created 98k jobs in March, well below market expectations for around 175k jobs. Adding insult to injury, revisions to the January and February data took off another 38k job. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, March 2017(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm...

Chalet apartments in Verbier – © Chechotkin | Dreamstime.com On 11 March 2012, Swiss voted to accept a law restricting the construction of secondary residences, homes that are only used occasionally by owners living somewhere else. Under the law no more than 20% of a municipality’s housing can be second homes. Those with percentages above 20% run into building restrictions. The initiative was nick named Lex Weber after...