SNB & CHF

(Business travel disrupts the commentary for the next two days.  New monthly drops March 1.)  Overview: A growth scare, perhaps spurred by the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing activity survey and the sharp drop in Conference Board's consumer confidence measure, sparked a sharp drop in US yields, a sell-off in US equities and a weaker US dollar. There is a fragile stability today. The greenback is firmer but mostly within yesterday's ranges against the G10...

(Business travel disrupts the commentary for the next two days.  New monthly drops March 1.)  Overview: A growth scare, perhaps spurred by the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing activity survey and the sharp drop in Conference Board's consumer confidence measure, sparked a sharp drop in US yields, a sell-off in US equities and a weaker US dollar. There is a fragile stability today. The greenback is firmer but mostly within yesterday's ranges against the G10...

Daniel Dennett, the renowned philosopher of science, proposed four steps for critiquing an intellectual opponent: First, one should attempt to re-express the opponent’s position so clearly, vividly, and fairly that the opponent would say, “Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it that way.” Second, one should list any points of agreement, particularly those that are not widely acknowledged. Third, one should highlight anything learned from the opponent. Only after...

Daniel Dennett, the renowned philosopher of science, proposed four steps for critiquing an intellectual opponent: First, one should attempt to re-express the opponent’s position so clearly, vividly, and fairly that the opponent would say, “Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it that way.” Second, one should list any points of agreement, particularly those that are not widely acknowledged. Third, one should highlight anything learned from the opponent. Only after...

On Thursday, the Senate HELP Committee is set to vote on the nomination of Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Trump’s pick for Labor Secretary. Chavez-DeRemer was a Republican representative from Oregon who made a name for herself for being very pro-labor union compared to other members of her party.Trump’s nomination of Chavez-DeRemer is seen as one part of a broader political shift that now paints the GOP as a party chiefly concerned with the well-being of the American working...

On Thursday, the Senate HELP Committee is set to vote on the nomination of Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Trump’s pick for Labor Secretary. Chavez-DeRemer was a Republican representative from Oregon who made a name for herself for being very pro-labor union compared to other members of her party.Trump’s nomination of Chavez-DeRemer is seen as one part of a broader political shift that now paints the GOP as a party chiefly concerned with the well-being of the American working...

During Donald Trump's first term, some investors bought into the Trump 1.0 Put. The trade was based on the market's belief that Trump believed the stock market's performance was a referendum on his presidency. Accordingly, investors thought that Trump would do everything he could to backstop the stock market if it fell. Thus, some investors thought it worthwhile to sell puts, collect the proceeds, and sit back comfortably, not fearing losses. According to a...

During Donald Trump's first term, some investors bought into the Trump 1.0 Put. The trade was based on the market's belief that Trump believed the stock market's performance was a referendum on his presidency. Accordingly, investors thought that Trump would do everything he could to backstop the stock market if it fell. Thus, some investors thought it worthwhile to sell puts, collect the proceeds, and sit back comfortably, not fearing losses. According to a...

The combination of extremely rich equity valuations, high interest rates, and a new President taking bold actions will likely continue to whip stocks around for the foreseeable future. Alongside those volatility-provoking factors is that the S&P 500 just posted two annual twenty-plus percent gains in a row. Accordingly, seeing average or below-average returns this year and volatility spikes should not be surprising. If we are correct about volatility, it's...

The combination of extremely rich equity valuations, high interest rates, and a new President taking bold actions will likely continue to whip stocks around for the foreseeable future. Alongside those volatility-provoking factors is that the S&P 500 just posted two annual twenty-plus percent gains in a row. Accordingly, seeing average or below-average returns this year and volatility spikes should not be surprising. If we are correct about volatility, it's...