Tag Archives: win-thin

Stock Markets EM FX closed the week on a firm note, as softer than expected US CPI data weighed on the dollar. We continue to believe that investors are underestimating the Fed’s tightening potential. Meanwhile, idiosyncratic political risk remains high for MXN, TRY, and ZAR. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 14 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge China China reports CPI and PPI Monday. The former is...

Summary Thailand announced general elections will be held in November 2018. Czech police filed criminal charges against ANO leader Andrej Babis. South Africa President Zuma may face corruption charges that were previously dropped. The US suspended visa services for travelers from Turkey. Kenyan opposition candidate Odinga withdrew from a redo of the annulled presidential election. Saudi Arabia will take a more gradual...

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week under pressure, as US data points to a rate hike in December and perhaps more in 2018. FOMC minutes this Wednesday will be closely studied for clues. US retail sales and CPI data Friday will also be important. We believe the most vulnerable currencies in this environment are ZAR and TRY, but one could also add MXN and perhaps RUB to that mix too. Stock Markets Emerging Markets,...

Stock Markets In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, China (+4.1%), South Africa (+3.2%), and Hungary (+2.4%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-2.8%), Qatar (-2.7%), and Mexico (-1.7%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 1.9% this week while MSCI DM rose 0.6%.   In the EM local currency bond space, Argentina (10-year yield -13 bp), Nigeria (-5 bp), and Thailand (-4 bp) have...

Stock Markets EM FX firmed Friday, but capped off a bad week overall. US jobs data this Friday is unlikely to provide much clarity on Fed policy, though we think it remains on track to hike again in December. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction will start this month. We remain negative on EM, and believe selling pressures are likely to persist in Q4. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 02 Source: economist.com -...

Summary India Prime Minister Modi announced an INR163.2 bln program to deliver electricity to all households. Poland’s President Duda is trying to reach a compromise on judicial reforms. Fitch raised the outlook on Russia’s BBB- rating from stable to positive. Saudi Arabia announced it will remove the ban on women driving. South Africa’s biggest labor organization stepped up its opposition to President Zuma. Turkey is...

Stock Markets EM FX was mostly firmer on Friday, but capped off a week of broad-based losses. US rates gave back some of post-FOMC rise, and that weighed on the dollar. Not much in the way of US data until Friday’s core PCE reading and Chicago PMI. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, September 20 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Singapore Singapore reports August CPI Monday, which is expected to remain...

Summary: China plans to issue its first USD-denominated bond since 2004. China’s largest banks banned North Koreans from opening new accounts. The UN Security Council approved new sanctions on North Korea. Relations between Poland and the European Commission remain tense. Brazil’s central bank appears to be signaling discomfort with ongoing BRL strength. Brazil President Temer faces a second set of criminal charges....

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week on a mixed note, but still capped off a strong week overall. US data this week could challenge the market’s dovish take on the Fed. For now, though, the global liquidity outlook still seems to favor further gains in EM. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, September 11 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge China China should report August new loan and money supply data this...

 Summary:  South Korea completed installation of the THAAD missile shield. Indonesia is considering issuing its first global IDR-denominated sovereign bonds. Taiwan is undergoing a cabinet shuffle. Brazil has seen some positive political developments. Brazil’s central bank signaled that the easing cycle is nearing an end and that the pace of easing will slow. Chile’s central bank boosted its growth forecasts. Stock...