Tag Archives: Turkey

The US dollar surged last week, with the Dollar Index rising 1.25%, the most since April. The dollar is being boosted by two drivers. The first is the policy mix and interest rate divergence. The other is the intensification of pressure on emerging market. Turkey has a disastrous combination of more fundamentals, large short-term foreign currency debt obligations, unorthodox policies, and the lack of credibility. On top...

Stock Markets EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated.  With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.Yet it’s worth noting that the five best...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.81% to 1.1355. Even more than the dollar, the Swiss Franc has muscled today. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar has surged. The main impetus comes from the dramatic slide in the Turkish lira.  After moving above TRY5.0 yesterday, it reached TRY6.30 today before stabilizing a...

Stock Markets EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, August 01 - Click...

Stock Markets EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP.  BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 25 - Click to enlarge South Africa South Africa reports June money, loan, and budget data Monday. June...

Stock Markets EM FX saw some violent swings last week, due in large part to some unhelpful official comments Friday. BRL and TRY were the best performers last week, while RUB and CLP were the worst. When all is said and done, however, we think Fed policy remains unaffected and so we remain negative on EM FX. Also, global trade tensions remain high after Trump threatened tariffs on all Chinese imports entering the US....

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday mixed, capping off a mostly softer week. TRY, MXN, and RUB were the top performers and the only ones up against USD, while ARS, CLP, and BRL were the worst.  Looking ahead, US jobs data on Friday pose some risks to EM, coming on the heels of a higher than expected 2% y/y rise in PCE. China will also remain on the market’s radar screen, with the first snapshots of June economic activity...

Summary PBOC fixed USD/CNY at the highest level since December 14. Bank Indonesia delivered a larger than expected 50 bp to 5.25%. Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov survived a second no-confidence vote this year. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected but with sweeping new powers. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE are reportedly in talks to help stabilize Bahrain. The South African Reserve Bank...

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday mixed, and capped off a mixed week overall as the dollar’s broad-based rally was sidetracked. EM may start the week on an upbeat after PBOC cut reserve requirements over the weekend. Best EM performers last week were ARS, MXN, and TRY while the worst were THB, IDR, and BRL. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, June 20 - Click to enlarge Indonesia Indonesia reports May trade Monday....

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, June 6...