Tag Archives: Oil

SPR - Click to enlarge US Department of Energy announced yesterday offered for delivery between October 1 and November 30, 11 mln barrels of sour crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. The move has nothing to do with operationalizing President Trump’s complaint that oil prices were too high. Instead, the sales are part of the fiscal compromise in 2015 budget legislation and the health care act of 2016. The...

Crude oil has been climbing a trendline for the past year. This Great Graphic depicts this trend on a weekly bar chart. Depending exactly the line is drawn, it comes in now near $65 a barrel. The technical indicators are consistent with further losses. Oil is off for a third day, alongside other industrial commodities, including copper. In addition to concerns about the economic impact from the trade tensions, the...

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 ’09, Q4 ’11, Q2 & Q3 ’14). But looking at the GDP change year over year shows a little different picture (2.8%). The US economy is definitely accelerating out of the 2016 slowdown. The...

Oil prices are weaker for the third straight day and are off in four of the past five sessions, the poorest run in two months. Supply considerations may threaten a year-old trend line. OPEC and non-OPEC, essentially Saudi Arabia and Russia are making good on their commitment to boost output, and US oil inventories unexpectedly rose. Saudi output appears to have risen by about 230k barrels per day. Production in Nigeria...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.65% to 1.1698 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar has broken out against the Japanese yen. Despite the global equity drop and decline in US yields, which often underpin the yen, the yen fell to its lowest level since early January yesterday and is continuing to sell-off today. The...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.1639 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US took the first step in making good its threat to put a 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods in response to the PRC retaliating for the 25% tariff on $34 bln of its exports. The US provided a list of products that will get the new...

The triumphalism that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall nearly three decades ago has evaporated. The Great Financial Crisis and inexorable widening of income and wealth inequalities within countries undermined claims of moral and economic superiority. Liberal democracies are fighting a rearguard action and the rise of illiberal regimes. The president of the country with the strongest military might and largest...

US President Trump is intent on disrupting the post-WWII arrangement that prioritized and ideological conflict over economic rivalries. Last week, it was reported that Trump told his counterparts at the G7 summit that NATO was as bad as NAFTA. NATO’s annual meeting is July 12. Trump seeks a realignment of alliances and appears to prefer the illiberal forces that arisen in recent years. The US Ambassador to Germany was...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% to 1.1545 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating its gains against most of the major currencies, but the underlying strength remains evident. Several major and emerging market currencies are at new lows for the year, including sterling and the New Zealand...

All three of the major central banks met last week and confirmed that monetary policy would continue to diverge for at least another year.  The clarity of the trajectory of monetary policy reduces the impact of high-frequency economic data. There are three major disruptive forces the make for a challenging investment climate just the same: the US policy mix, trade tensions, and immigration. The mix of tighter monetary...