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Tag Archives: Oil

FX Weekly Preview: Trade and Data Driving Markets

US President Trump is intent on disrupting the post-WWII arrangement that prioritized and ideological conflict over economic rivalries. Last week, it was reported that Trump told his counterparts at the G7 summit that NATO was as bad as NAFTA. NATO’s annual meeting is July 12. Trump seeks a realignment of alliances and appears to prefer the illiberal forces that arisen in recent years. The US Ambassador to Germany was...

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FX Daily, June 28: US Dollar Remains Firm, Sends Yuan, Rupee, Sterling and Kiwi to New 2018 Lows

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% to 1.1545 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating its gains against most of the major currencies, but the underlying strength remains evident. Several major and emerging market currencies are at new lows for the year, including sterling and the New Zealand...

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FX Weekly Preview Warning: Treacherous Week Ahead

All three of the major central banks met last week and confirmed that monetary policy would continue to diverge for at least another year.  The clarity of the trajectory of monetary policy reduces the impact of high-frequency economic data. There are three major disruptive forces the make for a challenging investment climate just the same: the US policy mix, trade tensions, and immigration. The mix of tighter monetary...

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FX Daily, June 5: Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.23% to 1.1526 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are several euro options that expire today and are stacked every quarter of a cent from $1.1675 to $1.1750. The size of the options increase with the price beginning with 688 mln euros at $1.1675, then 775 euros at $1.17, 1.1 bln euros...

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What Happened Monday?

Italian politics dominated Monday’s activity. Initially, the euro reacted positively in Asia to news that the Italian President had blocked the proposed finance minister. A technocrat government would be appointed to prepare for new elections. The euro reversed course by midday in Asia, several hours before European markets opened. The move accelerated and by midday in Europe, with London markets on holiday as well as...

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FX Daily, May 25: US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of the Weekend

Swiss Franc The Euro is down by 0.63% to 1.1545 CHF. This is the fifth day in sequence that the Swiss Franc appreciated. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Italian stocks are flat, while most European bourses are higher, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up 0.5% in late morning turnover in Europe. The benchmark is lead by real estate,...

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FX Daily, May 18: EUR/CHF Continues the Collapse

Swiss Franc The Euro is down by 0.54% to 1.1743 CHF. This is the fifth day in sequence that the Swiss Franc appreciated. Reasons are: Weaker than expected euro zone GDP growth in Q1, in particular in Germany. However this “soft-patch” should have been clear to everybody. So it cannot be the main reason. Still the weak German GDP was the trigger for EUR weakness. A dovish European Central Bank. Already at the press...

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Oil: Supply and Demand Drivers

Oil prices have recovered more than 50% of the decline since the mid-September peak. The next retracement objectives are found near $82 a barrel for Brent and $76.5 for WTI basis the continuation futures contract. The immediate consideration is that supplies have tightened. OPEC compliance to its agreement has exceeded targets, and Venezuelan output has been halved over the past two years to levels not seen in a more...

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FX Daily, April 12: Geopolitics Overshadow the Fed, Greenback Steadies

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.186 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar steadied at lower levels, while equities eased as investors remain focused on the preparations to strike Syria and still tense rhetoric on trade. Reports indicate that the US and France have moved warships into the area and...

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US Industry Experiences The Full 2014 Again in February

In February 2018, it was like old times for the US industrial sectors. Prior to the 2015-16 downturn, the otherwise moribund economy did produce two genuine booms. The first in the auto sector, the other in energy. Without them, who knows what the no-recovery recovery would have looked like. They were for the longest time the only bright spots. US Industrial Production, Jan 2006 - 2018(see more posts on U.S. Industrial...

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