Tag Archives: newsletter

We think the Fed has signaled that the bar to another cut is high.  Unless the US data weakens considerably, we see rates on hold for now and this means the liquidity story for EM has worsened.  Elsewhere, US-China trade talks appear to be going nowhere.  With no end in sight to the trade war, we remain negative on EM. Korea reports trade data for the first 20 days of September Monday.  Between the US-China trade war and Korea-Japan tensions over exports of strategic...

EUR/CHF risk reversals have jumped to the levels last seen in May.  Risk reversals indicate the demand for call options is rising. Risk reversals on EUR/CHF (EURCHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to put, jumped to the highest level since May on Friday, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for a rally in the common currency. The one-month risk reversals rose to -0.75, the highest level since May 10. The negative print indicates the implied volatility premium...

L’influence du ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ est susceptible d’augmenter dans les milieux économiques et politiques américains. La nouvelle théorie monétaire (Modern Monetary Theory/MMT), théorie macroéconomique défendue par des économistes hétérodoxes, commence à faire son chemin aux Etats-Unis. Cette théorie adopte une approche expérimentale de l’économie, basée sur la conviction fondamentale que la monnaie est créée par le gouvernement à travers les dépenses...

© Elenaphotos | Dreamstime.com Next year the canton of Geneva plans to spend CHF 9,143 million. However, forecast revenue is only CHF 8,553 million, leaving a shortfall of CHF 590 million, according to a cantonal government press release. The canton’s finances have been hit hard from both sides. Costs will rise significantly, mainly due to the bailout of the state employee pension fund (+213 million) and higher health insurance subsidies (+176 million). In addition,...

Central Banks Remain Calm, Investors Not So Much The avalanche of central bank meetings is rapidly winding down. We’ve had cuts, holds and a raise. The surprises have been minimal. Yet it didn’t prevent the inevitable knee-jerk reactions in the market. In truth, put together as a whole, we are no wiser nor better or worse off. I count that as a success. Especially because there was no projection of panic in any of the decisions. Despite on-going, and universal,...

AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement for a 50% reversion.  A subsequent pull-back, however, to the resistance and another sell-off will likely make for a high probability set up. AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement of the August lows to September highs,  located at 0.6715, and target the 50% retracement at 0.6674 (meeting the 2019 lows) should the markets continue to...

The Swiss National Bank has today published a focus article on its data portal entitled ‘Switzerland’s international investment position – breakdown of changes in stocks’ (data.snb.ch, Resources, International economic affairs, Focus articles). The article examines the extension of the data the SNB provides on Switzerland’s international investment position (IIP). In addition to information on the stocks in the IIP and the transactions in the financial account, the...

© Tetiana Chernykova | Dreamstime.com Switzerland’s government been grappling with the politics of extending universal tax-funded parental leave for a number of years. Some are pushing for paternity leave for fathers and others for a shared pool of parental leave, which mums and dads can apportion. There is also a popular vote working its way through the system which aims to create four weeks of paid leave specifically for fathers. Recently, Philipp Müller put...

Competing forces mean the two currencies could remain in a holding pattern for a while. The euro has remained relatively stable relative to the US dollar in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meetings. Growth and interest rate differentials, two key drivers for the EUR/USD rate, suggest things could stay this way. The growth differential (based on leading indicators) has barely budged since March after a sharp...

Jay Powell’s disastrous week is coming to a close, not yet his long nightmare. He has been battling fed funds (meaning repo) for his entire tenure dating back to February 2018. This week wasn’t the conclusion to the contest, just the latest and biggest round of it. According to DTCC, the GC repo (UST) rate came back down to 1.975% today. That’s much less than the 3.000% yesterday and 6.007% on Tuesday. As yesterday, today’s unscheduled overnight repo operation...