Tag Archives: newsletter

Ross Perot famously declared the “giant sucking sound” in the 1992 Presidential campaign. The debate over NAFTA did not end with George H. W. Bush’s defeat, as it simmered in one form or another for much of the 1990’s. Curiously, however, it seemed almost perfectly absent during the 2000’s, the very decade in which Perot’s prophecy came true. Americans didn’t notice because there was a bubble afoot. That bubble,...

Headlines Week February 27, 2017 We were arguing in the last weeks, that the EUR/CHF is trending towards parity. There are three reasons: Continuing SNB interventions Strengthening Swiss local demand Speculators increase their dollar shorts against Euro and reduce them against CHF. FX week until February 27 The EUR/CHF fell to new lows. The average rate in the week was 1.0648. The SNB is apparently ready to let the...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

United States There is a broad consensus around the macroeconomic picture. The headwinds slowing the US economy in H1 16 have eased, and above trend growth in H2 16 appears to be carrying into 2017. Q4 16 GDP is expected to be revised to 2.1% up from 1.8%. Many economists appear to accept that a good part, though not all, of the decline in the estimated trend growth in the US, is a function of demographic...

Stock Markets EM FX ended last week on a soft note despite lower US rates. The dollar regained some traction that it lost over the course of the week, when markets pushed out Fed tightening beyond March. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also seemed to push out fiscal stimulus. There is a full slate of Fed speakers this week, and Wednesday sees the release of the Fed’s Beige book that was prepared for the March 15 FOMC...

Construction Industry Production, Orders and Turnover Statistics in 4th quarter 2016 Neuchâtel, 23.02.2017 (FSO) – Secondary sector production declined 0.8% in 4th quarter 2016 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover fell by 2.1%. This is shown by provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Industrial Production In comparison with the previous year, industrial production...

Summary PBOC tweaked its process for determining the yuan reference rate. Singapore is reportedly studying measures to boost revenue, including higher taxes. Moody’s upgraded the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from negative to stable. Nigerian President Buhari extended his stay abroad. Nigerian central bank tweaked its FX restrictions, but was aimed at retail demand. Brazil political risk is back on the table. Brazil’s...

Media junkies on the tragic path to extinction believe the junk news, non-junkies see through the manipulation. The mainstream media continues peddling its “fake news” narrative like a desperate pusher whose junkies are dying from his toxic dope. It’s slowly dawning on the media-consuming public that the MSM is the primary purveyor of “fake news”– self-referential narratives that support a blatantly slanted agenda with...

For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed. There...

For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed. There...