Tag Archives: JPY

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today. The focus is squarely on tomorrow’s UK referendum. Brexit According to a BBC focus group, the leeave camp won the debate 39%-34%. The last polls show a contest that it too close to calls in that the results are within the margin of error.  The Financial Times poll of polls has it at 45%-44% in favor of Brexit. However, the betting markets appear to be telling a...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc was the strongest currency. The euro fell from 1.0877 to 1.0808. Two fundamental reasons: Speculator anticipate that German investors buy Swiss francs in response to the court decision in favor of the OMT (see below) The German ZEW (see below) that was better than expected. We know that CHF acts as a proxy for the German economy via strong trade ties and the tradition that German...

The assassination of Jo Cox, a member of the UK parliament is a personal and political tragedy.  Her needless death provided an inflection point.  The suspension of the referendum campaigns and a steady stream of reports and speeches has the emotionalism of contest freeze.  Investors quickly understood that the Cox’s death injected a new unknown into the forces that seemed to build toward a decision to leave the EU....

FX Rates The US dollar is higher against the major currencies but the Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.  The dollar fell to new two-year lows against the yen to JPY103.55 before bouncing in the European morning back to JPY104.40.  The Kiwi was helped by better than expected Q1 GDP.  The euro and sterling are within yesterday’s ranges.  The euro has been able to resurface above $1.13 since Monday.  Bids have...

Following today’s FOMC meeting, the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, and the UK meet tomorrow.  The SNB will keep its powder dry to be able to respond to the results of the UK referendum if needed.  The Bank of England is also on hold. The outlook for the BOJ is more in dispute.  The strength of the yen and deflationary pressures encourage some to look for Governor Kuroda to ease policy.  In fact, a little more than...

“The Swiss Franc was the strongest performer, EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.08 by 0.8%”. A spate of opinion polls showing a tilt toward Brexit, and the leading UK newspaper urging the Leave vote on the front page,  keep the global capital markets on edge.  Equities are lower, though of note ahead of the MSCI decision first thing Wednesday in Asia, Chinese shares eked out a small gain.  Core bond yields are 4-5 bp lower, which...

Swiss Franc Chandler is a bit puzzled about the Swiss Franc, that got stronger despite speculators being short CHF. We see weaker oil prices and weaker China as major reason, why sight deposits are falling and speculators are long the dollar. See the Dukascopy Video FX Rates The risk that the UK votes to leave the EU next week is the dominant force in the capital markets.  It is a continuation of what was seen at...

Swiss Franc Once again, CHF is one of the strongest performers on the FX market. Next Monday we will report how much the Swiss National Bank had to intervene in our regular “Weekly SNB sight deposits” report. See the Dukascopy Video FX Rates The US dollar weakened in the first half of the week as participants continued to react to the shockingly poor jobs report and shift in Fed expectations. However, it...

Swiss Franc The euro continues to weaken against the franc at 1.0922. But the speed of the descent has slowed. The dollar is stronger, in particular against EUR, CHF and AUD. The ECB bond buying program has finally started.  For us the main reason of the weaker Euro was, however, the bad US jobs report, that will delay also a normalization of rates in the euro zone. via Dukascopy FX Rates The US dollar is posting...

The US dollar is posting modest upticks against most of the European currencies and the Canadian and Australian dollars.However, it has fallen against the yen and taken out the recent low, leaving little between it and the May 3 low near JPY105.50.  The New Zealand dollar though is the strongest of the major currencies; gaining 1.5% following the RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold, and signal of little urgency to...