Tag Archives: JPY

Swiss Franc  During the weak the Swiss Franc lost momentum. It could regain speed only on June 30. The stronger Franc was initiated by remarks  by BoE governor Carney. Sterling stayed on the defensive on Friday after unambiguously dovish comments from the Bank of England abruptly ended a tentative recovery in the currency, while the euro wobbled on speculation of more stimulus in Europe. Still trying to get over...

FX Rates No fundamental development can compare with the UK decision to leave the EU. It has set off a chain reaction whose outcome is still far from clear.   Sterling is firm, alongside most of the major and emerging market currencies today.  Sterling narrowly edged above yesterday’s highs to reach almost $1.3425 before encountering selling pressure. Click to enlarge. Equity fund managers may find themselves over...

The global capital markets are stabilizing for the first time since the UK referendum.  It is not uncommon for markets to move in the direction of underlying trends on Friday’s; see follow-through gains on Monday, and a reversal on Tuesday.  That is what is happening today.  Turnaround Tuesday after such dramatic price action over the last two sessions has the feel of the proverbial dead cat bounce. Brexit There has...

Summary If conditions are exceptional, isn’t BOJ intervention more likely? If conditions are exceptional, the ban on European government supporting banks might not be valid. Italy is leading the charge in Europe. How exceptional are market developments? Much rests on the answer. If these are extraordinary circumstances, then Japanese intervention becomes more likely. Of course, Japanese policymakers have been...

Summary Sterling falls through last week’s low. Spanish election results suggest a UK is not necessarily a harbinger to anti-globalization forces. Yuan sells off and China breaks diplomatic contact with Taiwan. FX Rates Sterling has been sold beyond the panic low seen when it became clear that UK voters were choosing to leave the EU though nearly every economists warned of at least serious short- to...

The UK’s referendum is underway.  The capital markets are continuing the move that began last week with the murder of UK MP Cox.  The tragedy seemed to mark a shift in investor sentiment.  Sterling bottomed on June 17 just ahead of $1.40.  Earlier today in Asia, after more polls showed a move toward remain, sterlingrallied to almost $1.4845, its highest level since last December. The market continues to put anticipate...

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today. The focus is squarely on tomorrow’s UK referendum. Brexit According to a BBC focus group, the leeave camp won the debate 39%-34%. The last polls show a contest that it too close to calls in that the results are within the margin of error.  The Financial Times poll of polls has it at 45%-44% in favor of Brexit. However, the betting markets appear to be telling a...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc was the strongest currency. The euro fell from 1.0877 to 1.0808. Two fundamental reasons: Speculator anticipate that German investors buy Swiss francs in response to the court decision in favor of the OMT (see below) The German ZEW (see below) that was better than expected. We know that CHF acts as a proxy for the German economy via strong trade ties and the tradition that German...

The assassination of Jo Cox, a member of the UK parliament is a personal and political tragedy.  Her needless death provided an inflection point.  The suspension of the referendum campaigns and a steady stream of reports and speeches has the emotionalism of contest freeze.  Investors quickly understood that the Cox’s death injected a new unknown into the forces that seemed to build toward a decision to leave the EU....

FX Rates The US dollar is higher against the major currencies but the Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.  The dollar fell to new two-year lows against the yen to JPY103.55 before bouncing in the European morning back to JPY104.40.  The Kiwi was helped by better than expected Q1 GDP.  The euro and sterling are within yesterday’s ranges.  The euro has been able to resurface above $1.13 since Monday.  Bids have...