Tag Archives: JPY

All three of the major central banks met last week and confirmed that monetary policy would continue to diverge for at least another year.  The clarity of the trajectory of monetary policy reduces the impact of high-frequency economic data. There are three major disruptive forces the make for a challenging investment climate just the same: the US policy mix, trade tensions, and immigration. The mix of tighter monetary...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.40% to 1.1576 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge The Dollar Index edged higher to its best level this year before turning down as market attention shifts from central banks to trade tensions. Reports confirm that the US will go ahead with the 25% tariff on $50 bln of Chinese goods and provide some...

The US dollar is trading firmly as the FOMC decision looms. In many ways, the actionable outcome of this meeting has hardly been in doubt this year. By all accounts, the Fed will deliver its second hike of the year today. The question is not so much about the next meeting in August. The Fed has only hiked rates at meetings that a press conference follows. This is the source of one of our persistent criticisms of the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.03% to 1.1609 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar initially rallied in early Asia ahead of the US-North Korea summit but has subsequently shed the gains and more. As North American dealers return to their desks, the dollar is lower against nearly all the major...

The week ahead is eventful. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings. This would make for a busy week by themselves, but there is more. Trade tensions are likely to escalate further, if the US, as scheduled provides a list of $50 bln of Chinese goods that will face another 25% tariff for intellectual property violations. If the US does so, China has threatened to retract...

The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week’s meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly. However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language. Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as “live.” For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since...

The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15. That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February. The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to carry large euro exposure. Too many observers mistakenly focus on the net...

The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days. Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro. The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swinging back in favor of two more Fed rate hikes this year did not trigger new...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.30% to 1.1558 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The week is ending quite a bit different than it began. The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by -0.42% to 1.1485 CHF. EUR-CHF and USD-CHF, May 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today’s activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. ...