Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.1348. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the world’s currencies today. The main exceptions come from the emerging markets where the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, and Mexican peso are the chief exceptions, and their losses are modest....
Read More »FX Daily, August 16: Emerging Markets Stabilize, Dollar Eases a Little
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.48% to 1.1322. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Two developments have helped turned sentiment, or at least arrested the markets’ momentum. First, the developments in Turkey, where officials have taken a few measures that will make it somewhat more difficult to access the lira. This may...
Read More »Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline
This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the dollar-yen exchange rate. It shows a three-year downtrend line (white line). The US dollar had popped above it last month, but this proved premature and has not closed about it for a month. The trendline is found near JPY111.55 now. Connecting the 2016 dollar lows and the low from late March this year is a red line. It is found near JPY105.60. Together both lines mark a...
Read More »FX Daily, August 15: Lira Rallies on Cut in Swaps, but Fails to Dent Dollar Demand
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.09% to 1.1264. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Turkish lira is extending yesterday’s recovery today on the back of actions by officials that are aimed at limiting foreign access to the lira to short. Without introducing new capital controls, regulators halved the amount of swap...
Read More »FX Daily, August 13: Turkey Drives Risk-Off, but Pressure Abating
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% to 1.1351. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The failure of Turkey to grab the bull by the horns, so to speak, and come to grips with the situation saw the dollar soar above TRY7.23(from TRY6.43 at the end of last week) and to ZAR15.55 (from ZAR14.09). The Mexican peso, the strongest...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Testing the Dollar’s Breakout
The US dollar surged last week, with the Dollar Index rising 1.25%, the most since April. The dollar is being boosted by two drivers. The first is the policy mix and interest rate divergence. The other is the intensification of pressure on emerging market. Turkey has a disastrous combination of more fundamentals, large short-term foreign currency debt obligations, unorthodox policies, and the lack of credibility. On top...
Read More »FX Daily, August 10: The Dollar Muscles Higher as Turkey Melts Down
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.81% to 1.1355. Even more than the dollar, the Swiss Franc has muscled today. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar has surged. The main impetus comes from the dramatic slide in the Turkish lira. After moving above TRY5.0 yesterday, it reached TRY6.30 today before stabilizing a...
Read More »FX Daily, August 09: Sterling Remains Under Pressure, while the Greenback Firms Broadly
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.48% to 1.1476 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The global capital markets are mostly quiet. US sanctions on Turkey and Russia are pressuring their respective currencies, and the New Zealand dollar has slumped nearly 1.5% on the back of a dovish hold by the central bank. The Kiwi is...
Read More »US-Japan Trade Talks
The withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement lift it exposed on two fronts. First, the TPP was going to modernize the NAFTA. Without, the US remains locked in protracted negotiations. A breakthrough in talks with Mexico has been reportedly imminent for weeks. Talks with Canada have apparently not progressed very far in recently, and the US insistence on a sunset clause remains a...
Read More »FX Daily, August 08: Sterling Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way, While Dollar and Yen Catch a Bid
Fears that the UK could leave the EU in a little over six months without an agreement continues to drag sterling lower. Recall that over the weekend, the UK’s International Trade Minister Fox suggested there was a 60% chance of a no-deal Brexit. A few days earlier BOE Carney said that although it was not the most likely scenario, the risks such a departure were “higher than comfort.” Sterling is lower for a fifth...
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