Tag Archives: FX Trends

[unable to retrieve full-text content]During this week the Swiss Franc index lost against both dollar and euro. The CHF index ended one percent down. Despite not convincing US jobs, the dollar index ended in positive territory.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Speculative activity remained light in the latest CFTC reporting period ending August 30. There were no gross position adjustments that we recognize as significant; 10k contracts or more. There were only three gross adjustments by speculators of more than 4k contracts. With the higher EUR/CHF FX rate and weaker U.S. jobs date, speculators went long CHF by 8.2K contracts.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Underlying concerns about US labor market ease after two robust reports. Sept Fed views will not change much. Canada’s data is disappointing, BOC optimism may be challenged.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report. Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar. Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week. The Japanese yen is about a 0.3% lower and is off 1.7% this week. The euro was coming into today for the week.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The new month has begun with a couple of surprises. The biggest surprise has been the record jump in the UK manufacturing PMI to 53.3 from 48.3. A much smaller rebound was expected in August after the Brexit shock drop in July.

Swiss Franc Switzerland Trade Balance (See more posts for Switzerland Trade Balance) Click to enlarge. Source Investing.com FX Rates The US dollar is mostly little changed against the major, as befits a summer session. There are two exceptions. The first is the New Zealand dollar. Comments by the central bank’s governor played down the need for urgent monetary action and suggested that the bottom of cycle may be...

Summary: Dollar weakness does not line up with increased perceived risk of Fed hiking rates. Frequently the rate differentials lead spot movement. Some now turning divergence on its head, claiming too expensive to hedge dollar-investments so liquidation. TIC data, though, shows central banks not private investors, were the featured sellers in June, the most recent month that data exists. The US dollar has...

Swiss Franc As usual, when discussions about rate hikes go on, then both the dollar and the euro gain against the Swiss Franc. Click to enlarge. Federal Reserve Last week, some market participants were giving more credence to what seemed like dovish FOMC minutes than to NY Fed President Dudley’s remarks that accused investors of complacency over the outlook for rates. Yesterday, Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve...

Lastly, a brief word about next week.  I will not post my usual piece on macro considerations on Sunday.  Here, though, is a brief thumbnail sketch of the top five things I will be watching:   1.  Yellen at Jackson Hole at the end of next week:  To the extent that she shares her assessment of the economy, I would expect to largely echo the broad sentiment expressed by NY Fed President Dudley. Click to enlarge. 2....

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index gained nearly 3% last week, while the dollar index lost over 2%. This gives a total gain of 5%. Swiss Franc Index (see more posts on Swiss Franc Index) Click to enlarge. Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket) On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance....