Tag Archives: FOMC

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year.  The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical.  The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it...

According to Alan Greenspan in a speech delivered at Stanford University in September 1997, monetary policy in the United States had been shed of M1 by late 1982. The Fed has never been explicit about exactly when, or even why, monetary policy changed dramatically in the 1980’s to a regime of pure interest rate targeting of the federal funds rate. In those days, transparency was no virtue but rather it was widely...

In August 2014, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer admitted to an audience in Sweden the possibility in some unusually candid terms that maybe they (economists, not Sweden) didn’t know what they were doing. His speech was lost in the times, those being the middle of that year where the Fed having already started to taper QE3 and 4 were becoming supremely confident that they would soon end them. At Janet...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound has made good gains against the Swiss Franc this morning with rates for GBP CHF now sitting at 1.2650 for this pair. The pound seems to have found support as the Brexit bill is still expected to pass through the House of Lords next week when the bill comes under additional scrutiny. There is a...

There are actually two parts to examining the orthodox treatment of the output gap. The first is the review, looking backward to trace how we got to this state. The second is looking forward trying to figure what it means to be here. One final rearward assessment is required so as to frame how we view what comes next. As I suggested earlier this week, the so-called output gap started at the trough of the Great...

Summary: Biggest change is that Fed sees three instead of two hikes next year. Minor tweaks in the forecasts. Fiscal policy could raise the long-run growth potential, which would be a net good but not needed to reach full employment. As has been tipped since at September the Federal Reserve increased the Fed funds target range by 25 bp to 50-75 bp.  The market’s understanding of the Fed reaction function and the...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Fed does not expand much on Sept. statement. Bar to December hike seems low. There were two rather than three dissents. FOMC - Click to enlarge The FOMC did not break new ground and the statement was as widely expected. It indicated that the case for...

Summary: There are several economic data points that suggest a healthy gain in jobs in September. College educated unemployment is 2.5% with high school graduate unemployment at 5.5%. The jobs report we expect is consistent with a Fed hike in December. Let’s admit that the monthly non-farm payroll report is among the most difficult for economists to forecast. The are not many reliable inputs as it is the first...

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF accelerated its decline since yesterday’s strong Swiss trade balance data. The second reason was certainly the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged. We know that the Swiss Franc has similar “counter-dollar” status as gold. Click to enlarge. Japan Much of what the Bank of Japan announced today had been largely leaked. While there was a sizeable response in the asset markets, the dollar’s...

Swiss Franc For us the developments in the trade balance express if a currency is overvalued or not (more details here). The Swiss trade surplus is constant or rather rising, hence the Swiss Franc is correctly valued or rather undervalued.And – as we see below – the franc appreciated. Switzerland Trade Balance(see more posts on Switzerland Trade Balance, )Switzerland Trade Balance – click to enlarge. FX Rates...