Tag Archives: Featured

The Everything Bubble has topped out, and trying to push it higher for the next 14 months is a sure way to increase the damage next year. One of the more reliable truisms is that Americans vote their pocketbook: if their wallets are being thinned (by recession, stock market declines, high inflation/stagnant wages, etc.), they throw the incumbent out, even if they loved him the previous year when their wallets were getting fatter. (Think Bush I, who maintained high...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0903 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global equities are advancing at least in part on ideas that trade tensions are easing. China announced it would not take immediate action on the five percentage point increase in levies that the US announced strictly in response to China’s retaliatory tariffs. A lull between...

This is a companion piece to last week’s Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The move in Treasuries is by some measures, as extreme as the fall of 2008 when we were in a full blown panic. That to me, is evidence that this move is overly...

A deal agreed between EFTA and the South American Mercosur bloc, which includes Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, with a combined population of 260 million, is close to signing. © Tomas Griger | Dreamstime.com EFTA includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. Under the deal, 95% of Switzerland’s CHF 3.6 million annual exports to the bloc would be tarif free. The deal is important because the EU recently agreed a similar Mercosur deal, so this deal...

USD/CHF takes the bids near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April-August downpour. 200-day EMA, four-month-old falling trend-line acts as key upside resistance. Despite breaking 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), USD/CHF remains below key resistance confluence as it takes rounds to 0.9880 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair needs to provide a daily closing beyond 0.9890/95 region including 100-day EMA and four-month-old descending trend-line in order...

Having destroyed discipline, central banks have no way out of the corner they’ve painted us into. It was such a wonderful fantasy: just give a handful of bankers, financiers and corporations trillions of dollars at near-zero rates of interest, and this flood of credit and cash into the apex of the wealth-power pyramid would magically generate a new round of investments in productivity-improving infrastructure and equipment, which would trickle down to the masses in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% to 1.0887 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets are calm today, though there does seem to be some optimism creeping back into the market. The Chinese yuan strengthened, snapping a ten-day slide and Italian bank shares index has risen by more than 1% for the fourth consecutive session. The safe-haven yen and...

SNB jawboning CHF lower as concerns mount over global growth fears and a flight to safety. EUR/CHF is already trading close to the lows of the year. The Swiss National Bank’s Andréa M Maechler, Member of the Governing Board, has crossed the wires saying that ‘any intervention’ requires an analysis of cost/benefits – plenty of jawboning going on here. Key comments: Negative rates are working, still, have plenty of room for fx intervention. The attractiveness of CHF...

More from SNB Maechler Right now is still plenty of room for forex intervention as to negative rates are working, SNB’s Maechler says “absolutely” Looking at the EURCHF, the pair is trading near the lowest levels since June 2017. The lows this month tested the lows from back then. The test has stalled the fall. EUR/CHF, Daily - Jan 2017 - August 2019(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Drilling to the 4 hour chart below, the price of the EURCHF...

The luxury goods aisle You might think twice before overcooking a load of steak, chops and sausages on the barbecue: meat costs 2.3 times more in Switzerland than the European Union average. The priciest EU country for meat, Austria, is 1.46 times the average. The Swiss also dig deeper into their pockets than other European residents for other foods, but not as noticeably as with meat, according to latest figuresexternal link from the European Statistical Office,...