According to Eurostat’s preliminary figures, euro area GDP grew by 0.2% quarter on quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2 and in line with our expectations. Country wise, France, Italy and Spain grew at the same pace in Q3 as in Q2. In particular, household and investment spending grew at a solid pace in both France and Spain. The preliminary GDP figure for Germany will not be released until 14 November. But based on the country data released so far and assuming...
Read More »FX Daily, October 31: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% to 1.0993 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The equity and bond rally in North America yesterday carried over into today’s session. With some notable exceptions, like China, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia, most bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe traded higher. US shares are little changed in early Europe after the S&P...
Read More »FX Daily, July 31: Sterling Steadies, Attention Shifts to FOMC
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.1026 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After a shellacking in recent days, sterling has stabilized though there is not much of a bounce to speak of, suggesting the adjustment to the risk of a no-deal Brexit may not be complete. After the S&P 500 posted back-to-back...
Read More »Germany Struggles On
The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike. The aftermath of that crisis, particularly the...
Read More »FX Daily, May 15: Angst Continues
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.28% at 1.1273 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: merkets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Disappointing Chinese April data spurred speculation that more stimulus will be forthcoming and bolsters hopes that a trade deal with the US by the end of next month helped Asian Pacific equities advance for the first time this week....
Read More »Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News
At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more. That’s been the basis of this thing from Day 1; or, more accurately, Day 3.01. Reflation #3 wasn’t really any different in type from...
Read More »What Really Happened In Europe
The primary example of globally synchronized growth has been Europe. Nowhere has more hope been attached to shifting fortunes. The Continent, buoyed by the persistence of central bankers like Mario Draghi, has not just accelerated it is actually booming. Or so they say. Last September, politicians were lining up to confidently declare as much, often deploying that specific word. When Jean-Claude Juncker gave his annual...
Read More »FX Daily, May 02: Confident Fed Key to New Found Respect for the Dollar
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.1944 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There is a brief respite in the powerful short squeeze that has fueled the dollar’s dramatic recovery. The greenback which was nearly friendless a month ago now has many suitors. It is higher on the year against all the major currencies but...
Read More »Switzerland: So far so good
According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)’s quarterly estimates, Swiss real GDP rose by 0.6% q-o-q in Q4 (2.4% q-o-q annualised; 1.9% y-o-y), above consensus expectations (0.5%). The Swiss economy expanded by 1.0% in 2017 overall, in line with our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 1.4% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2015. Two aspects of today’s report are worth mentioning. First, on the expenditure...
Read More »FX Daily, February 14: Investors Remain Uneasy even as Equities Stabilize
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.1533 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is hard to imagine the kind of body blow that the equities took last week...
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