Tag Archives: Europe

Summary: Populism-Nationalism is not sweeping the world. The populist-nationalist party in the Netherlands will most likely not be a member of the next govt. There is little appetite for a referendum on EU. Nexit may be a clever slogan, but is highly improbable. The conventional narrative is that a wave of populism-nationalism is a sweep in the US and Europe. This is not as obviously true as many seem to...

The current year we will see several elections held in Europe. With voters going to the polls there are many uncertainties associated. Investors should keep an eye on the political calendar. The European Political Risk Barometer developed by IS&P will support them to do so. Watch Michael O' Sullivan talking on...

Germany is notoriously fickle when it comes to money, speaking as much of discipline in economy or industry as central banking. If ever there is disagreement about monetary arrangements, surely the Germans are behind it. Since ECB policy only ever attains the one direction, so-called accommodation, there never seems to be harmony. But that may only be true because “accommodation” doesn’t ever achieve what it aims to....

Summary: EC is committed to the future of Europe. Juncker presented five scenarios. Even if the populist-nationalist do not win the electoral contests, the national identity issues will continue to exert influence. Later this month, Europe celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Economic Community.  Very near to the anniversary, which was not one of the original...

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data since my last update has improved somewhat. It isn’t across the board and it isn’t huge but it must be acknowledged. As usual though there are positives and negatives, just with a slight emphasis on positive right now. Interestingly, the bond market has not responded to these slightly more positive readings with nominal and real yields almost exactly where they were in the...

On Friday, after it emerged that as part of Marine Le Pen’s strategic vision for France, should she win, is a return to the French franc as well as redenomination of some €1.7 billion in French (non-international law) bonds, both rating agencies and economists sounded the alarm, warning it would “amount to the largest sovereign default on record, nearly 10 times larger than the €200bn Greek debt restructuring in 2012,...

Submitted by George Friedman and Jacob Shapiro via MauldinEconomics.com, What will the year ahead look like for Europe? 2017 will be another chapter in the European Union’s slow unraveling… a process that has been underway for over a decade. The EU is a union in name only. The transfer of sovereignty to Brussels was never total, and member states are independent countries… each with their own interests at stake....

For over four decades, many of the planet’s biggest trouble makers and assholes have met each year in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum with the humble mission of, “Improving the state of the world.” Each year since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has sponsored a symposium in Jackson Hole on an important issue facing the world’s bankers and their pet politicians and government bureaucrats....

Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices.  Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like. However, political factors are more difficult for investors to integrate into their analysis. Therein lies the main challenge in the year ahead.  There will be many opportunities for political factors to overwhelm...

A new world order is coming of age and the transition is painful to accept for a Western middle class with a deep-seated sense of entitlement. We showed how the West feels threatened globally in Toward a New World Order and followed up explaining how this translate into domestic politics in Toward a New World Order Part II. We will now continue this series by showing how gross economic mismanagement have created the...