Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate rose today as investors were pleased by Theresa May’s comments about the Brexit. We are looking now at a more decisive Prime Minister Theresa May who has set out a plan and some objectives which if realised will create a much stronger and better Brexit than political...
Read More »FX Daily, January 17: Trump’s Comments Send the Dollar Reeling
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF - British Pound Swiss Franc, January 17(see more posts on GBP/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is broadly lower against major and emerging market currencies. It has given up yesterday’s gains and more. The proximate cause appears to be comments by President-elect Trump in a Wall...
Read More »FX Daily, January 16: Hard Exit Talk Sent Sterling Below $1.20
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro has been sold to $1.0580 in the European morning, a cent lower from the pre-weekend high. In addition to the drag from sterling, the euro appears to have been sold in response to the interview in two European papers of the next US President. Among other things, Trump reported claimed that NATO...
Read More »The Difference of an A and BBB for Italy
Summary: DBRS cut Italy’s rating to BBB from A. It will increase the haircut on Italy’s sovereign bonds used for collateral by Italian banks. It is not a mortal blow or a significant hit, but is not helpful, except to add pressure on Italy and further reduce its ability to respond to another shock. The ECB takes the best credit rating of four agencies to set the haircut on collateral provided by banks for loans....
Read More »FX Daily, January 13: Corrective Forces Persist
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Supreme Court Judgement expected imminently The Supreme Court Judgement on whether parliament will have to O.K the triggering of article 50 is ongoing and when the ruling is announced expect big swings on GBP/CHF. I think the likely outcome will be that parliament will get the vote, most broad sheet papers have...
Read More »FX Daily, January 12: Dollar and Yields Ease Further, but Look for Recovery
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge If you are buying or selling the Swiss Franc the next week is vital to expectations. The pending Supreme court case will shape the next twist and turns of Brexit which in turn will of course affect the pound and also risk sentiments. I expect GBPCHF could easily slip below 1.20 if the Court Case is rejected, this...
Read More »FX Daily, January 11: Dollar Comes Back Bid
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 11 (see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The pound has seen a sharp fall following the interview that Theresa May gave with Sky news on Sunday although there has been a small rebound this afternoon. GBP CHF exchange rates are hovering around 1.2350 for this pair. The pound fell sharply in morning trade but has since recovered as there still remains a...
Read More »FX Daily, January 10: Positioning more than Fundamentals Give Traders Pause
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling is on the ropes following Brexit comments made by UK Prime Minister Theresa May over the weekend. It’s been a tough day’s trading for any clients holding the Pound with losses against all of the major currencies. GBP/CHF rates have dropped by a cent and a half with the pair now trading in the mid 1.23’s,...
Read More »The Better Way: Backing into Smoot-Hawley and Repeating the Flaws of PPP
Summary: Part of the US Republican tax reforms call for a border adjustment. It will tax imports fully and not exports. This will likely be challenged at the WTO. Many economists say the dollar will automatically appreciate by 20%. WE are bullish the dollar but skeptical of the logic here. While hearings on US President-elect Trump’s nominees will begin this week, the Republicans are preparing dramatic changes...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields
Summary: Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues. United States The major US equity indices reached record highs before the weekend even...
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