Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.09% to 1.1531 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are two important developments today. First, the recovery in the global equity markets is being challenged. Second, the yen has strengthened across the board, and is now at its best levels against the dollar since last September’s...
Read More »FX Daily, February 12: Equity Markets Find Firmer Footing, Dollar Softens
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11% to 1.1505 CHF. EUR/CHf and USD/CHF, February 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The most important development today has been the stability in the equity markets after last week’s meltdown. The recovery from new lows in the US before the weekend set the tone for today’s moves. Tokyo markets were on holiday, and the...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Recovering from Too Much of a Good Thing?
Too much of a good thing is bad. That, in a nutshell, is an important insight that Hyman Minsky offered about the financial sector, but has broader application. The low volatility that has been a characteristic of the capital markets for the past few years spurred financial innovation to profit from it. A broad range of financial instruments constructed to profit from continued low volatility, such as exchange-traded...
Read More »CNY, Not Imports
In February 2013, the Chinese Golden Week fell late in the calendar. The year before, 2012, New Year was January 23rd, meaning that the entire Spring festival holiday was taken with the month of January. The following year, China’s New Year was placed on February 10, with the Golden Week taking up the entire middle month of February. For economic statistics, that meant extreme difficulty translating year-over-year...
Read More »Great Graphic: FX Vol Elevated, but Still Modest
Summary: FX implied vol bottomed before the VIX took off. FX vol is at the highs for the year, but euro and yen vol is lower than last September. Sterling vol has risen the most. With the substantial swings in the volatility of equities that have captured the imagination of journalists and punished investors who bought financial derivatives that profited from the low vol environment, we thought it would be...
Read More »FX Daily, February 08: Dollar Firms, While Equities Search for Stability
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.43% to 1.152 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The swings in the equity markets are subsiding, bond yields are firm and the US dollar is extending its recovery. Although US equities closed lower, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day drop by posting a 0.25% gain. However, the...
Read More »Great Graphic: Major Currencies Year-to-Date
Summary: The major currencies but the Canadian dollar peaked Jan 25-26. The Australian dollar has fallen the most since peaking. Many are still viewing the dollar’s recovery as technical in nature and not a turn in the trend. This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It shows five major currencies against the US dollar this year. To avoid giving a misleading impression, the currencies are index to start...
Read More »FX Daily, February 07: Guns and Butter May Resolve US Legislative Logjam
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.1602 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates After a volatile session in North America, the major equity indices closed higher. In fact, the 1.75% rise in the S&P 500 was the best since November 2016. Asian equities stabilized, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was able to eke out...
Read More »FX Daily, February 05: Dollar Consolidates while Equity Rout may be Ebbing
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.19% to 1.1622 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Asian equity markets were weighed down by losses in the US markets ahead of the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was off 1.4% after the 1.0% pre-weekend loss. The Nikkei gapped lower and shed 2.5% and has fallen in eight of the past...
Read More »FX Daily, February 01: Fed’s Hawkish Hold Keeps Dollar Consolidation Intact
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.1578 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Yellen Fed ended on a high note. She took over the reins the of Federal Reserve an implemented a strategic normalization process monetary policy, and helped engineer not only the first post-crisis rate hikes but also the beginning of...
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