Tag Archives: ECB

Equity markets and the US dollar closed last week and August on a firm note. Ahead of the weekend, the dollar rose to new highs for the year against the euro, Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and the New Zealand dollar. While the next set of US and Chinese tariffs start September 1, the market is making the most of the lull. At the same time, US and Chinese officials probe each other to see if sufficient disruption has been felt to force concessions. Talking and...

“The intellectual leaders of the peoples have produced and propagated the fallacies which are on the point of destroying liberty and Western civilization.” Ludwig von Mises, Planned Chaos It took multiple meetings and over 50 hours of official negotiations for EU leaders to reach an agreement on the appointments for the top jobs of the EU and the ECB, but in mid-July the results finally came in. The ECB was particularly in focus, as bad news keeps piling up for the Eurozone economy and...

“The intellectual leaders of the peoples have produced and propagated the fallacies which are on the point of destroying liberty and Western civilization.” Ludwig von Mises, Planned Chaos It took multiple meetings and over 50 hours of official negotiations for EU leaders to reach an agreement on the appointments for the top jobs of the EU and the ECB, but in mid-July the results finally came in. The ECB was particularly in focus, as bad news keeps piling up for the...

German real GDP shrank in the second half of the year, reinforcing our view of a significant ECB action in September.The German economy shrank by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q2. Today’s report contained some positives news, notably regarding the resilience of domestic demand.Nevertheless, the ongoing trade disputes between China and the US, China weakness, the threat of auto tariffs and the threat of a no-deal Brexit to supply chains, in addition to the auto sector’s own issues are...

The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies). Following the end of the tariff truce, and after the July...

Slowing economic momentum in the euro area means that we are lowering our GDP forecasts for this year. The euro area economy grew by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1. While 0.2% is still a decent pace of growth, concerns about the economy in the second half of the year have increased. Recent data have shown that the industrial slump has started to leave some marks on the domestic economy. Tentative signs of...

Slowing economic momentum in the euro area means that we are lowering our GDP forecasts for this year.The euro area economy grew by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1.While 0.2% is still a decent pace of growth, concerns about the economy in the second half of the year have increased. Recent data have shown that the industrial slump has started to leave some marks on the domestic economy.Tentative signs of weakening domestic demand, the possibility of a hard Brexit, potential US tariffs...

- Click to enlarge 1. As soon as it was clear that the ECB was not easing today, the euro began to recover, after making a marginal new low for the year (just above $1.11). 2. Draghi made it clear that easing was going to be delivered in September and on several fronts including rates (with mitigating measures like tiering) and new asset purchases (not decided on instruments, which plays into speculation of equity...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.13% at 1.1056 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Investors are happy for the weekend. Between the ECB, Brexit, and next week’s FOMC, BOJ, and BOE meetings, the markets are mostly in a consolidative mode ahead of the weekend. The first look at Q2 US GDP is the last important data...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.71% at 1.1045 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The euro remains stuck in its trough below $1.1150 ahead of the ECB meeting. The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. The yen continues to resist the draw of the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are...