Tag Archives: CPI

“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after...

With the Trumpflation euphoria easing back slightly overnight, leading to a modest paring in the USD index and US Treasury yields, Asian and European stocks rose, while US equity futures rebounded to just shy of new all time highs, as crude jumped on renewed optimism that OPEC will agree to cut output; Italian equities underperformed ahead of the Italian referendum; metals rebounded from last week’s losses as yields dropped and the dollar halted its longest winning streak versus the euro....

Yesterday morning we noted why, in light of the ongoing global bond rout, all eyes would be on the BOJ, and specifically whether Kuroda would engage his "Yield control" operation to stabilize the steepness of the JGB yield curve and implicitly support global bond yields in what DB said would be "full blown helicopter money" where the "BoJ is flying the copter over the US and may be about to become the new US government’s best friend." And sure enough that is precisely what Kuroda did last...

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The central banks have gone so far off the deep-end with financial price manipulation that it is only a matter of time before some astute politician comes after them with all barrels blasting. As a matter of fact, that appears to be exactly what Donald Trump unloaded on bubble vision this morning:  By keeping interest rates low, the Fed has created a “false stock...

The summer doldrums continue with another listless overnight session, not helpd by Japan markets which are closed for holiday, as Asian stocks fell fractionally, while European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the IEA said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output (something they have said every single month). S&P futures have wiped out almost all of yesterday's losses and were up over 0.2% in early trading. Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%  with miners and energy...

The meltup continues with the S&P500 set to open at new all time highs as futures rise 0.2% overnight, with European, Asian stocks higher, as job data pushed MSCI Asia Pacific Index towards highest close since Aug. 2015. Germany, U.K. economic data seen positive, with dollar, oil rising, and gold declining. Global equities advanced with commodities and emerging markets on speculation the U.S. economy is strong enough to sustain growth while only triggering a gradual increase in interest...

Last Thursday, when we reported that Ben Bernanke was to "secretly" meet with Kuroda and Abe this week (he is said to have already met with Japan's central bank head earlier today), we said that "something big was coming" out of Japan which had "helicopter money" on the agenda.  And sure enough, after a dramatic victory for Abe in Japan's upper house elections which gave his party an even greater majority, Abe announced the first hints of helicopter money when Nikkei reported, and Abe...

In the long run, as someone once said, we are all dead, but in the meantime, as BofAML’s Michael Hartnett provides a stunning tour de force of the last 5000 years illustrates long-run trends in the return, volatility, valuation & ownership of financial assets, interest rates & bond yields, economic growth, inflation & debt… The Longest Pictures reveals the astonishing history investors are living through...

After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe. Treasuries retreated in the first full day of trading since Yellen said late Friday that the improving...

After yesterday's algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday's 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate...