Tag Archives: 4.) Marc to Market

The world’s two great powers are at loggerheads. Chinese nationalism meet your sister, US nationalism. Import substitution strategy of Made in China 2025 meet your cousin Make America Great Again. Paradoxically, or dialectically, the similarities are producing divergent interests that extend well beyond economics and trade policy. Consider that the intermediate-range nuclear missile treaty between the US and Russia did...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.14% to 1.0918 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: While investors keep a watchful eye on the dollar fix in China (a little firmer than projected) and tensions with the US, two other developments compete for attention. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the central banks of India and...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.23% to 1.0928 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The escalation of the economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies is dominating the capital markets. The US cited China as a currency manipulator after the North American markets closed, ensuring the troubled start to...

President Trump’s tweets last week announcing the end of the tariff truce signaled a new phase in the US-Chinese tensions. China responded as did investors. I was fortunate to have been invited to the Bloomberg set to discuss the issues of the day. In this two-minute clip, I suggest there will be far-reaching implications for investors. World growth is getting marked down as deflationary forces strengthen. The...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.0893 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Chinese officials took the US tariff hike quietly last week but struck back today. The PBOC fixed the dollar higher (CNY6.90), which it has not done, and will halt imports of US agriculture. The dollar shot through CNY7.0 to finish the...

The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies). Following the end of the tariff truce, and after the July...

After falling against all the major currencies in June, the US dollar rebounded in July. The Dollar Index finished the month at new two-year highs with the Fed’s suggestion it was engaged in a mid-course correction rather than a sustained easing cycle. The dollar also appeared buoyed by the extent of the dovishness by the ECB and the heightened risks that the UK leaves the EU at the end of October without an agreement....

The October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away.  The new Prime Minister is beginning to convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October.   PredictIt.Org shows the odds of the UK leaving has risen to almost 50% from about a 33% chance a month ago.   Here is a summary of where the situation stands and some key dates going forward.  Boris Johnson handily won the Tory...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.40% to 1.0929 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The market was finding its sea legs after being hit with wave and counter-wave following the FOMC decision, and more importantly, Powell’s attempt to give insight into the Fed’s thinking. Trump’s tweet than signaled an end to the tariff...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.0989 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The Federal Reserve delivered the first rate cut since the Great Financial Crisis but couched it in terms of a mid-course correction rather than the start of a larger easing cycle. By doing so, Fed chief Powell cast the cut in less...