Tag Archives: 4.) Marc to Market

In recent weeks, while Russia's war on Ukraine continues and Beijing continues to harass its neighbors, the U.S. tariff threats and doubts that its defense commitments will be sustained, have emerged as the most significant challenge for businesses, investors, and policymakers. These tariffs are aimed at protecting domestic industries, forcing a re-shoring of production, and raising revenue. If, and when implemented, the tariffs can be expected to impact economic...

Sorry for the disruption of the regular commentary.  Still, the monthly will be posted tomorrow.  There is a key divide in the market.  One camp sees the US tariff threats as bluster and a negotiating tactic.  The other camp, which I find myself in, thinks something more serious is happening.  The US voted against Europe and with Russian and Iran at the UN for the first time in 45 years on European issues.  Martin Wolf, the erstwhile economic editor at the Financial...

Sorry for the disruption of the regular commentary.  Still, the monthly will be posted tomorrow.  There is a key divide in the market.  One camp sees the US tariff threats as bluster and a negotiating tactic.  The other camp, which I find myself in, thinks something more serious is happening.  The US voted against Europe and with Russian and Iran at the UN for the first time in 45 years on European issues.  Martin Wolf, the erstwhile economic editor at the Financial...

(Business travel disrupts the commentary for the next two days.  New monthly drops March 1.)  Overview: A growth scare, perhaps spurred by the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing activity survey and the sharp drop in Conference Board's consumer confidence measure, sparked a sharp drop in US yields, a sell-off in US equities and a weaker US dollar. There is a fragile stability today. The greenback is firmer but mostly within yesterday's ranges against the G10...

(Business travel disrupts the commentary for the next two days.  New monthly drops March 1.)  Overview: A growth scare, perhaps spurred by the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing activity survey and the sharp drop in Conference Board's consumer confidence measure, sparked a sharp drop in US yields, a sell-off in US equities and a weaker US dollar. There is a fragile stability today. The greenback is firmer but mostly within yesterday's ranges against the G10...

Overview: The US 10-year yield has fallen to a new two-month low near 4.33% today, ahead of the $70 bln sale of five-year notes, following strong demand at the two-year floating note sale yesterday. The 200-day moving average is near 4.25%. The 10-year yield peaked in mid-January near 4.80%. The dollar initially rallied on President Trump's acknowledgement that tariffs on Mexico and Canada were still on track, though another official was quoted on the wires...

Overview:  The dollar is offered. Neither the 227k rise in nonfarm payrolls, nor the above 3% Q4 growth that the Atlanta Fed sees the economy tracking, or the uptick in November CPI expected to be reported on Wednesday has been sufficient to dampen speculation of a rate cut next week. The futures market has a nearly 88% chance discounted. The antipodean currencies and Scandis are leading the move, ostensibly encouraged by the pro-growth signals from China's...

The US dollar advanced against all the G10 currencies last week but the Swiss franc but turned in a most mixed performance against emerging market currencies. The US 10-year yield fell for the third consecutive week and near 4.16%, it is around a dozen basis points below where it settled the night before the US election. The two-year yield fell for the second consecutive week and settled near 4.10% is about half a dozen basis points below the pre-election day level....

Overview:  The dollar is mixed on what will start critical second half of the week. France holds its confidence vote in a few hours. Fed Chair speaks at a moderated discussion at the New York Times around 1:40 ET. The US data focus shifts to the labor market with the ADP estimate today and the nonfarm payroll report on Friday. The head of the main opposition party in Japan stepped down ostensibly until March due to a personal scandal and this has dampened...

Overview: The US dollar has extended the losses scored late yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he was still leaning toward a December rate cut. The odds of a rate cut rose to around 76% from about 66% at the end of last week. The odds are slightly lower today, around 72%. A solid jobs report on Friday and another uptick in CPI may change some minds. The only G10 currency that is weaker today is the Japanese yen, and it is off about 0.25%....