Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

Broadly speaking, the risk is that the dollar’s cyclical advance is not complete. The drivers will likely remain in place through at least the middle of next year. Additional gradual interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and a favorable policy mix underpin the dollar. The Federal Reserve projects four rate hikes between now and the end of next year. Quarterly rate hikes through the middle of next year are the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% at 1.1452 Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies today, largely consolidating its recent losses. Equities are mixed.  In Asia, Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong equities gained around 1%, while most other bourses were softer. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed in late morning...

Turkey’s economic challenges arise from the imbalances created during the economic boom that saw poverty halved between 2002 and 2011, extensive urbanization, and integration in the world economy through trade and capital flows. The dramatic economic changes saw the rise of Erdogan, who was re-elected as President for a second term in June. His party (AKP) is joined by the Nationalists (MHP). The imbalances, amidst a...

Last month’s downdraft in equities spooked investors. The fear that is often expressed is that the end of the business cycle may coincide with the end of a credit cycle and a return to 2008-2009 crisis. It seems like an increasing number of economists agree with the sentiment expressed by President Trump that the Fed is too aggressive. Of course, they do not think the president should comment on Fed policy, but they...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% at 1.1425 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It appears that month-end considerations deterred the dollar selling that the technical indicators warned was coming and as the new month starts, the dollar is offered. It is weaker against all the major currencies and most of the...

High-level distillation of the drivers of selected currencies. - Click to enlarge US Dollar Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth. The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain. The FOMC meets next week. A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario despite the heightened volatility in the stock market. With the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.19% at 1.1378 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After sliding hard this month, equities continue to stabilize into month-end. All of the equity markets in Asia-Pacific rallied with the help of a solid close in the US. European bourses are higher too as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% at 1.1401 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: First, reports suggested that if China refused to make any trade concessions, the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting next month would not take the issue up. Fair enough. Then, new reports indicated that the White was...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% at 1.1379 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Dollar index is trading within last Friday’s trading ranges. The year’s high, set on August 15, was just shy of 97.00. The euro continues to straddle the $1.14 level but is spending more time in Europe below there. There is a 1.5 bln euro...

Equities  Global equities have sold off hard. The magnitude of the recent loss is similar to what happened earlier this year. The MSCI World Index of developed countries fell 10.5% in January-February carnage and are now off about 11% this month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has matched the 11% loss back at the start of the year, but never truly recovering in between. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell around 9% initially...