Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

15.11.2021 – In 2020, 10 945 sentences and measures were executed in Switzerland (2019: 13 810). More than two thirds (67%) were for imprisonment in a penal institution. Community service accounted for less than a third (30%) of executions of sentences while electronic monitoring made up 3%. 86% concerned males and 42% Swiss citizens. The average population in penal institutions decreased by 6%. Data come from the Federal Statistical Office’s (FSO) execution of...

Last week, the US GDP growth figure for Q3 came in lower than expected, while prices moved higher than anticipated and the US Employment Cost Index update rose at its fastest pace in 31 years. The headline increase was driven by the biggest surge in wages since 1982, up 1.5% in the third quarter. Substantial productivity gains would be required now to offset this rise in wages. Without gains in productivity and/or a fall in labour costs, there could be a risk to...

After September’s negative performance, last week proved one of the strongest in a while for equity markets. This rebound followed news that the Biden administration will start to tackle the supply-chain and logistics issues that have been preventing deliveries. The ports of Los Angeles, the busiest in the US, will begin operating around the clock seven days per week to ease cargo bottlenecks that have led to shortages and higher costs for consumers. Showing some...

14.10.2021 – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2021 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 104.1 points (December 2020 = 100). In particular, basic metals and semi-finished metal products as well as petroleum and natural gas saw higher prices. Compared with September 2020, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 4.5%. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). In particular,...

China’s high-yield bond crisis continued last week, with yields on the ICE BofA index of Chinese high-yield US dollar bonds moving above 18% at one stage last week, the highest level in a decade. Further nervousness was caused by one real-estate issuer’s decision not to reimburse USD200 mn of offshore bonds–despite having USD4 bn in cash on its balance sheet. This suggests the company in question favours domestic investors and its own cash needs over its offshore...

06.10.2021 – The UN World Data Forum 2021 (UNWDF) ended Wednesday 6 October in Bern with the adoption of the “Bern Data Compact for the Decade of Action on the Sustainable Development Goals”. This conference, held for the first time in a hybrid format, had a total of 7626 participants registered online, of whom 668 were present in Bern. The Minister of Home Affairs Alain Berset and the UN Secretary General António Guterres highlighted the importance of data to...

ASSET ALLOCATION We maintain our tactically neutral position on equities, with the notable exception of Japan, where we see scope for a re-start to Abenomics and for Japanese stocks to continue to close their performance gap with their peers in other developed markets. Though recourse to options trades, we are prepared for an increase in volatility as markets adjust to slowing growth momentum. While they may consolidate in the short term, we remain broadly optimistic...

04.10.2021 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.2% in nominal terms in August 2021 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.5% in August 2021 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes...

04.10.2021 – The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in September 2021 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.3 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +0.9%. compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that counterbalanced each other overall. Prices for clothing and footwear...

14.09.2021 – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in August 2021 by 0.7% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.9 points (December 2020 = 100). Chemical products and pharmaceutical products in particular saw higher prices. Compared with August 2020, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 4.4%. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). In particular, higher prices for pharmaceutical products and...