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More Unmixed Signals

Summary:
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that the country’s official manufacturing PMI in December 2018 dropped below 50 for the first time since the summer of 2016. Many if not most associate a number in the 40’s with contraction. While that may or not be the case, what’s more important is the quite well-established direction. Coming in at 49.4 in December, it’s down in a straight line from 51.3 in August. China PMI 2010-2018(see more posts on China Producer Price Index, ) - Click to enlarge Activity inChina’s [sic] manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years in the month of December amid a domestic economic slowdown and Beijing’s ongoing trade dispute with the U.S.

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China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that the country’s official manufacturing PMI in December 2018 dropped below 50 for the first time since the summer of 2016. Many if not most associate a number in the 40’s with contraction. While that may or not be the case, what’s more important is the quite well-established direction.

Coming in at 49.4 in December, it’s down in a straight line from 51.3 in August.

China PMI 2010-2018

(see more posts on China Producer Price Index, )
More Unmixed Signals

- Click to enlarge

Activity inChina’s [sic] manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than two years in the month of December amid a domestic economic slowdown and Beijing’s ongoing trade dispute with the U.S.

Domestic economic slowdown you say? What could that possibly mean? Just this:

PBOC Balance Sheet 2010-2018

More Unmixed Signals

- Click to enlarge

China remains at a monetary standstill, and now the economy, too. But mixed signals or something.

PBOC Balance Sheet 2007-2018

More Unmixed Signals

- Click to enlarge

Dollar Shortage

More Unmixed Signals

- Click to enlarge


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Jeffrey P. Snider
Jeffrey P. Snider is the head of Global Investment Research of Alhambra Investment Partners (AIP). Jeffrey was 12 years at Atlantic Capital Management where he anticipated the financial crisis with critical research. His company is a global investment adviser, hence potential Swiss clients should not hesitate to contact AIP

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