SNB & CHF

I had the privilege of talking with Scarlet Fu and Joe Weisenthal on Bloomberg TV. They gave me an opportunity to discuss my big picture view of the dollar and the Obama dollar rally. While the Reagan dollar rally was driven by the policy mix, and the Clinton dollar rally was driven by the tech bubble, the Obama dollar rally is being driven by monetary policy divergence. Divergence itself has a bit of a history. The first phase was about what other countries were doing, namely easing...

The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro and yen remain within yesterday's ranges, while sterling continues to trade heavily. The stabilization of oil prices has not lifted the Canadian dollar, while the other Antipodean currencies turn higher. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, though the South African rand is slightly firmer. The Russian ruble's decline has been extended into the fourth sessions and brings its loss this month to 8.5%, the worst performing emerging market...

In 2015, it was on average 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter in Switzerland than the year before, in fact the hottest it has been since measurements began in 1864. Scientists think global warming may be contributing to weather extremes like this. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit...

The spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in meat has reached alarming levels with the highest proportion found in chicken. Lab tests have now shown that heritage breeds such as Bresse, Mechelen and Jersey Giant chickens are free of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. An entrepreneur in Thurgau is investing in these breeds, which have almost become extinct because they are not profitable enough for modern-day poultry production. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch...

The Basel Dove was the first multi-coloured printed postage stamp in the world. An exhibition is being held in canton St Gallen to mark the 170th anniversary of the renowned stamp. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel:...

A look inside the first Swiss Robotics Industry Day in Lausanne. The event was organised by the Swiss national competence centre in robotics. (RTS/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel: Website: http://www.swissinfo.ch Channel:...

There is a populist idea of money printing. The idea is that banks can just print what they want, enriching themselves in a massive fraud. But, does it really work this way? Let’s start with a simple case, which is clearly not money printing. We will build a series of examples by adding one element at a time, working our way up to banks, and the central bank. Then we can examine this idea of printing. Henry Homeowner finds the perfect house, goes to a bank and gets a mortgage. He is...

There is a populist idea of money printing. The idea is that banks can just print what they want, enriching themselves in a massive fraud. But, does it really work this way? Let’s start with a simple case, which is clearly not money printing. We will build a series of examples by adding one element at a time, working our way up to banks, and the central bank. Then we can examine this idea of printing. Henry Homeowner finds the perfect house, goes to a bank and gets a mortgage. He is...

During this holiday period, participation is light and order-driven activity can push prices more than usual.  Investors should not let the noise and gyrations obscure the bigger picture.   We continue to place the divergence of monetary policy at the center of our narrative.     Barring a significant negative surprise from the labor market, we expect the Fed to hike rates again, with March as the most likely timeframe.  We are cognizant that the recent US data has disappointed, and that...

Australia, New Zealand, UK markets closed for Boxing Day.   After rallying last week, oil prices are off 2%, base and precious metals lower. European core and peripheral bond markets are highs, with yields slipping mostly 2-3 bp. No end to the political uncertainty in Spain, but Spanish 10-year bonds are matching regional performance.  Equities have a heavier bias.  Asian shares were mixed.  The Nikkei rose 0.6% while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.6%.  Reports suggest that the...