SNB & CHF

By 2045 the Swiss population will grow to over ten million. Pensioners are the fastest growing segment of society. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel: Website: http://www.swissinfo.ch Channel:...

The SNB’s expected December 10 rate cuts have already been priced in to the Swiss Franc. The central bank’s failure to do more than the market expected resulted in a stronger CHF. Growing uncertainty over the Fed’s 2016 monetary policy is a bullish factor for the franc. As they watched the euro strengthen following the ECB’s meeting, SNB representatives rubbed their hands in glee. However, by the start of the Asian FOREX session, the franc was already recovering from its wounds. Now, Bern...

The second round of French regional elections will be held this weekend.  The first round last weekend saw the National Front do best in terms of popular votes and led in six of the twelve regions.    The National Front is not simply anti-austerity, but it is anti-EMU.  In regions that NF garnered more than 40% of the vote, the Socialists have withdrawn their candidate and urged their supporters to vote for the center-right candidate to boost the chances of defeating NF.  Sarkozy, who...

Since 2015, the SNB provides its balance sheet items in a different form. Previously the monthly bulletins provided a history of the balance sheet. The last monthly bulletin appeared for August 2015. It contained all important data of the SNB and the Swiss economy. The balance sheet data is often 2 months or older.  The weekly monetary data and the IMF data about FX reserves and more are published a lot more quickly, but they are not that complete like the monthly bulletin. SNB...

The US dollar continues its mixed performance.  The fragile stability of commodity prices today is not lending much support to the Australian and New Zealand dollars though the Canadian dollar is flat after yesterday's slide.  The euro has pushed above $1.09 for the first time this week.  We had suggested a $1.08-$1.10 range would likely dominate this week.  Technically, it appears poised to test the upper end of that range.  Stops above the $1.1010 retracement objective could carry the...

Many observers conclude OPEC is dead.  Oh, its demise has been claimed before, but after the oil cartel failed to provide a quota (output goal) in last week's statement, the claim has been given new life.  The problem is that OPEC's action under Saudi leadership may be perfectly rational for a cartel.  Suppose you were playing Machiavelli to a Saudi Prince.  What would you advise?  The Prince is concerned that many OPEC and non-OPEC producers increased their output and expected the...

Richard C. Koo, Chief Economist of the Nomura Research Institute and of Balance Sheet Recession fame recently wrote a paper entitled “Central Banks in Balance Sheet Recessions: A Search for Correct Response.” In this post I want to respond specifically to Koo’s remarks on the global Great Recession:  “These are extraordinary times for central banks. Near zero interest rates and massive liquidity injections are still failing to bring life back to so many economies in the developed world. If...

This remains one of my favorite Great Graphics that illustrate the divergence theme that I think is the main driver of the euro-dollar exchange rate.  Composed on Bloomberg, it shows two time series.  The first (white line) shows the German two-year yield minus the US two-year yield.  It bottomed near -80 bp in mid-October and slid persistently through last Wednesday to hit reach almost -138 bp.   The second time series (yellow line) shows the euro.  It too peaked in mid-October near...

The US dollar is firm against the dollar-bloc currencies, and sterling, but is heavier against the euro and yen.   The 13th consecutive year-over-year decline in China's imports helped keep the pressure on the commodity producers.  Despite New Zealand reporting strong Q3 manufacturing sales (3.5% vs. -0.2% in Q2), the pendulum of market expectations have continued to swing for a rate cut later this week.   The drop in oil prices, and secondarily the widening of the interest rate gap with...

A company led by Swiss engineer Pascal Jaussi is building a space shuttle by combining technologies from all over the world. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) Jaussi, an engineer and Swiss Air Force military pilot, founded the company Swiss Space Systems in 2013 in Payerne, canton Vaud. Through the firm, he is pursuing his childhood dream of becoming an astronaut. The company’s goal is to make space accessible by developing, manufacturing and operating suborbital spaceplanes. The SOAR (Sub-Orbital...