SNB & CHF

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.1028 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, July 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates After falling to new lows for the year against several major currencies in response to disappointing retail sales and uninspiring CPI before the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a more stable note. It is firmer against nearly all the major...

The majority of the economic reports over the last two weeks have been disappointing, less than the consensus expectations. The minor rebound in activity we’ve been tracking since last summer appears to have stalled. Retail sales continue to disappoint and inventory/sales ratios are once again rising – from already elevated levels. Even the positive reports were clouded by negative undertones. So far though our market...

The Economist magazine’s 6-monthly Big Mac index shows the Swiss franc to be even more overvalued than it was in January 2017. The index, which compares the US$ price of a Big Mac around the world places Switzerland at the top with a price of US$ 6.74. This is 27.2% more expensive than the United States where the same burger costs US$ 5.30. In January 2017, the same burger in Switzerland cost US$ 6.35 and US$ 5.06 in...

Bitcoins have taken a step towards acceptance by the Swiss banking community - Click to enlarge Swiss private bank Falcon has become the first mainstream wealth manager in the country to allow clients to invest bitcoins in their portfolios. The Zurich-based bank has been given the green light to accept the cryptocurrency by the Swiss financial regulator. Falcon has teamed up with cryptocurrency brokerage Bitcoin...

FX The EUR/CHF remained over 1.10 in the last week, thanks to hawkish comments from ECB president Draghi. Headlines Week July 17, 2017 On June 27, Draghi told the audience at the annual ECB Forum that transitory factors were holding back inflation. This has boosted the euro against both USD and CHF. Our opinion, however, is that this “transition” is very long, possibly comparable to the Japanese deflation/...

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week on a firm note, helped by softer than expected US data.  Indeed, EM FX was up across the board for the entire week and was led by BRL, MXN, and ZAR. The ECB meeting this week will draw some interest, especially after the BOC last week became the second major central bank to hike rates. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 05 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Hungary...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: Market has downgraded chances of a September hike from low to lower, but the chances of a December hike are higher than the day after the June hike. ECB meeting is the most important event of the week. A small change in the risk assessment is likely. The US and Europe have been more disruptive to the global capital markets this year than China. The focus shifts in the week ahead from Yellen’s...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Euro remained the strongest among EUR, CHF and USD during the last month. The Swiss lost against EUR 1.5%, while it gained versus the dollar 0.75%. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency...

Bitcoin and other cryptos have fallen sharply over the past month in a shakeout that saw some of the early longs decide to take their winnings and walk away. But a 20% drop from the all-time highs hasn’t done much to temper wealthy investors interest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as alternative investments potentially worthy of diversification. And with the Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust still trading at a...