SNB & CHF

The Swiss economy relies very much (and probably too much) on exports. More than half of GDP growth in 2014 was driven by the trade balance, while consumption lagged. Many consider this dependency on exports insane. In Q4/2016, export of goods fell by 3.8%, while imports remained the same; this implies a fall in GDP for the export/import component. Investment in equipment dipped, after some positive quarters....

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is bid against the major currencies as the combination the increased expectation of a Fed rate hike and the President’s commitment to fiscal stimulus buoys sentiment. The dollar-bloc, where speculators in the futures market, have grown a net long position, are leading the...

The Used Goods Question Retail sales in several countries like Germany, Japan and Switzerland continue to fall or they remain steady for years. In the United States they have strongly risen recently. We should remind readers, that used goods sold via Ebay or similar, are not contained in this statistics. Still they create economic value for the purchases. By mentality, Swiss, Germans or Japanese pay more attention so...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.38 to 1.43 points in January and continues to signal solid growth in private consumption. Swiss consumers view the economic and financial situation with considerably more...

© Ronnie Wu | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge In Switzerland, those who own the home they live in must add imputed rent to their income when calculating their income tax. This means owner-occupiers are taxed for living in their own homes, an odd concept for some who are new to Switzerland. In addition to paying tax on imputed rent, home owner-occupiers can deduct maintenance and mortgage interest costs from their...

To begin assessing the dollar’s impact on the US economy, nominal bilateral exchange rates may be misleading. From a policymakers’ point of view, the real broad trade weighted measure is more important. The Federal Reserve tracks it on a monthly basis. This measure of the dollar snapped a four-month advancing  streak ended in January with a marginal loss (0.05%).  Last month, the real broad trade weighted measure fell...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has now slipped below 1.25, a trend I did say I expected to take shape this month. Whilst some commentators do foresee the pound finding some strength once Article 50 is triggered I believe there is a strong likelihood that we will actually be more likely to see the pound...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has now slipped below 1.25, a trend I did say I expected to take shape this month. Whilst some commentators do foresee the pound finding some strength once Article 50 is triggered I believe there is a strong likelihood that we will actually be more likely to see the pound...

Summary: Numerous events converge in the middle of March. We still lean toward a May hike rate than March. Wilders may garner a plurality of the vote in the Netherlands, but is unlikely to form a government for want of coalition partners. How will the Republican US Congress and President deal with the debt ceiling? T.S. Eliot tells us that April is the cruelest month. A great poet he was, but a trader he was...

The second estimate for GDP was so similar to the first as to be in all likelihood statistically insignificant. The preliminary estimate for real GDP was given as $16,804.8 billion. The updated figure is now $16,804.1 billion. In nominal terms there was more variation, where the preliminary estimate of $18,860.8 billion is now replaced by one for $18,855.5 billion. Therefore, to net out with no change in real terms a...