Tag Archives: USD

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.60% to 1.1495 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies is scaring investors, who are liquidating equities and buying core bonds. The dollar and yen are the strongest of the major currencies. The Swiss franc is mostly steady...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.40% to 1.1533 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is rising against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The prospects of escalating trade tensions and the divergence of policy that was confirmed by the major central banks are disrupting the markets. Norway’s...

All three of the major central banks met last week and confirmed that monetary policy would continue to diverge for at least another year.  The clarity of the trajectory of monetary policy reduces the impact of high-frequency economic data. There are three major disruptive forces the make for a challenging investment climate just the same: the US policy mix, trade tensions, and immigration. The mix of tighter monetary...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.40% to 1.1576 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge The Dollar Index edged higher to its best level this year before turning down as market attention shifts from central banks to trade tensions. Reports confirm that the US will go ahead with the 25% tariff on $50 bln of Chinese goods and provide some...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.43% to 1.1568 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge The US dollar is slumping against all the major currencies in the aftermath of the hawkish Federal Reserve. In fact, the inability of the greenback to hold on to the gains scored in the initial reaction to the Fed’s hike, optimism on the economy,...

The US dollar is trading firmly as the FOMC decision looms. In many ways, the actionable outcome of this meeting has hardly been in doubt this year. By all accounts, the Fed will deliver its second hike of the year today. The question is not so much about the next meeting in August. The Fed has only hiked rates at meetings that a press conference follows. This is the source of one of our persistent criticisms of the...

The week ahead is eventful. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings. This would make for a busy week by themselves, but there is more. Trade tensions are likely to escalate further, if the US, as scheduled provides a list of $50 bln of Chinese goods that will face another 25% tariff for intellectual property violations. If the US does so, China has threatened to retract...

The Markit group that provides many of the PMI surveys noted with today’s reports that the eurozone outlook has “darkened dramatically.” This makes for a poor backdrop for the ECB, which meets next week. However, with price pressures recovering from the Easter-related distortions, the ECB is still on track to finish its asset purchases at the end of the year. This seems largely taken for granted. The real issue is when...

The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week’s meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly. However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language. Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as “live.” For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since...

The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15. That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February. The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to carry large euro exposure. Too many observers mistakenly focus on the net...