Tag Archives: USD

The trajectory of monetary policy in the US and Europe has been fairly clear. There is practically no doubt that the Fed will hike rates on September 26. Despite softer than expected PPI and CPI figures, the market has become more confident of another move in December. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind reaches its maximum velocity of $50 bln a month in Q4. Eurozone It is also understood that ECB will reduce...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% at 1.1277 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar traded above JPY112 in early Asia, for the first time since early August but it could not take out the high recorded then (~JPY112.10) and has come off a bit in Europe. There is a $493 mln option struck at JPY112 that will expire...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.27% at 1.1312 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro has fallen on ECB meeting days this year and the last two meetings in 2017. The euro is trading in the upper end of the $1.1525-$1.1650 trading range. The intraday technicals suggest that the $1.1600 area may hold until at least the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% at 1.1277 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar has been confined to about 10 pips on either side of JPY111.55. There are $1.13 bln of options struck between JPY111.50 and JPY111.65 that expire today. Dollar support extends to JPY111.20-JPY111.30. It has not traded above JPY112.00...

The CRB index has been trending lower since late May. It fell nearly 10% to retrace 50% of the rally come June 2017. This Great Graphic shows the 4 1/2 month trendline. It had been violated in late August but fell back under it at the end of last week. On Monday, it gapped higher, above the trendline. Today it filled the gap and rallied to new session highs. A move above 192.00 would likely confirm a bottom of some...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.17% at 1.1282 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro and sterling extended their recovery from the US hourly earnings lows seen before the weekend. However, the move stalled in the European morning, after the UK reported better than expected earnings itself. Sterling approached the 61.8%...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.82% at 1.1289 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s pre-weekend gains were extended against most the major currencies, but the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar have recovered in the European morning.  Emerging markets currencies are mixed. The euro fell to almost $1.1525 in...

The euro recorded the low for the year so far on August 15 near $1.13. We had been anticipating a corrective phase for a couple days before the low was recorded. Recall that the previous Friday, August 10, all the major currencies, but the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar were beyond their Bollinger Bands. The euro recovered toward $1.1735 on August 28, stopping shy of our initial objective of $1.1750. Yet through the...

United States The 201k rise in US non-farm payrolls edged above the median forecasts, but the 50k downward revision to the past two-months removes the gloss. It is the first August report in seven years that the initial estimate was above the Bloomberg median. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Sep 2013 - Sep 2018(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge The most important part of the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.26% at 1.1185 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 7(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro’s resilience strikes us as a potentially important reflection of market psychology. Last week’s high was set near $1.1735, and the high for August was a little higher at nearly $1.1745. The euro has not been above $1.1750 since the...